BTC is once again back above $60,000, and the community is somehow divided regarding where the market might head next. Some are saying that the correction is close to ending, while others still see a test of $50,000 as support as being quite possible.
Personally, I believe that the more BTC consolidates around $60,000—and it's been doing that for something like six months already—the more aggressive the pump will be. The masses are in disbelief, though. The fear and greed index is at 34 points, which indicates fear in the market.
I bet that once BTC breaks above $70,000—whether it is this month, next month, or by the end of the year—that is when the majority will once again turn bullish on crypto. This is how the herd functions. They don't buy in times of fear; they prefer buying in times of euphoria.
We are not the same...
I did that as well. I was one with the herd, too. I guess that's how you learn and decouple from the majority: when you realize that doing the same as everyone else is unproductive. The current bull market is my third one, and no, I have not become rich yet.
I have detailed too many times on my blog the reasons why I screwed up two bull markets in a row. However, I want to talk about something that will make it clear for a newbie whether we are in a peak euphoria phase in a bull market. This is something you can notice in yourself; you don't even need charts to see it.
When you start waking up every day, looking at your portfolio, and feeling like it's Christmas every day, you should know the end of the cycle is near. It might take weeks or months before your assets (talking crypto here) will peak, but to me, these are clear signs that the peak is near, and that is when I will consider gradually selling my shitcoins.
You will see the media and influencers talking about Bitcoin becoming a standard in the financial markets, getting to a million-dollar valuation, and so on and so forth. But as with any asset on this planet, nothing that goes parabolic stays parabolic.
At some point, people are going to take profits, and the uptrend will turn into a cascade without you even knowing it. Same thing every cycle. So when you are served Christmas every day, do yourself a favor and accept the gifts. I do believe that BTC will appreciate much more over time and that some altcoin projects will establish themselves in the world of tech.
It won't happen overnight, and no matter the fundamentals, after a sustained parabolic rally, a bear market clearly follows. Once the downfall begins and your portfolio starts shrinking in value, you won't care about the fundamentals anymore and will regret not selling as the market was going higher and higher.
Once we begin "up only," there will be Christmas every day, and doing nothing will probably be the worst decision one could make this bull cycle. Just my two cents...
Thanks for your attention,
Adrian