In the past couple of days, BTC has managed to climb a few thousand dollars higher in its dollar valuation, and BTC spot ETFs are seeing increased trading volume again. BlackRock's CEO recently said that Bitcoin is an asset class of its own and will thrive regardless of who wins the U.S. presidential election.
I agree, and honestly, I think I have a better hedge in crypto than BlackRock. I’ve been here since the days when Larry Fink was calling BTC a currency for criminals, or something like that. Now he’s done a 180 because he sees the potential to make big money off Bitcoin.
We all saw that potential years ago. A lot of us have been through the craziness of OneCoin, Bitconnect, FTX, and every other fiasco the crypto world has thrown at us. And every cycle, we hear the same phrase: This time is different…
The narrative I hate most? The so-called super cycle. I don’t believe in that at all. They were saying the same thing back in 2021, and now I see some people pushing it again.
As long as fear and greed drive the masses, there will always be cycles. This bull market will end, probably in 2025, just like every other bull market before it.
Sure, thanks to spot ETFs in the U.S., we’ve got different players in the game now. But even with all that, we still had a seven-month correction that only recently ended. ETFs pushed BTC to a new ATH before the halving and stuck around during the correction, too.
Now that the market’s gaining more capital, we’re seeing crazy top price predictions for BTC—ranging from $200k to $1 million. Feels like there’s no ceiling this time. You know what people say: This time is different… Nope, it’s not.
It’s the same shit every four years. The market always tries to convince people that history won’t repeat. Personally, I believe the opposite, and my strategy this time is more time-focused than price-focused.
I don’t know how high the market will go, but I do know that around 500 days after the halving, it usually peaks. We can’t be sure it’ll take that long, so I’ll be gradually DCAing out starting Q1 2025. Nailing the exact top would be great, but no top trader has ever done that.
Pro investors know you have to stay hedged, which means dumping positions gradually as things heat up. That’s what I’m planning to do, and I swear, I won’t hold a single coin into 2026. I need to make it this cycle—otherwise, I’m fucked...
Thanks for your attention,
Adrian