Extreme emotions... They're everywhere—casinos, TV shows, social media, relationships, politics, and crypto. Everything’s evolving at such a pace, and it seems like our reactions to just about anything are far more exaggerated compared to back in the day.
In the past few years, we’ve gone from total world lockdown to near sparks of a world war, the 2020 recession, the spectacular bull market that followed, and everything in between.
Not long ago, several renowned analysts, like Alessio Rastani (whom I once respected a lot), refused to believe we’d ever see another bull market in stocks or crypto.
I kind of called the bottom in crypto back then, but I didn’t leverage it as well as I could have. I guess there’s still a lot for me to learn—especially when it comes to managing my reactions to extreme emotions and making better financial decisions in those moments.
Take this: less than a week ago, BTC had a major dump, and once again, it felt like the end of the world. Fast forward to today, though, and it turns out that dump was just another buying opportunity. What fools we can be sometimes...
In three days, Trump will be inaugurated as president again. BTC is already cruising well above $100,000, and it feels like we’re on the brink of an insane altcoin season. Trump’s known to be pro-crypto, and rumors are already swirling about him driving massive crypto adoption during his term.
Because of those rumors, people are hyping up the idea of a super cycle again—which, frankly, I highly doubt will happen. Still, these narratives are essential because they fuel the next crypto bubble.
We’re not in a bubble yet—not for altcoins, anyway. BTC has surged massively since the late 2022 bottom, but altcoins are still lagging behind. Investors hyping themselves into FOMO will be the ones to fuel the bubble by aping into altcoins, chasing the dream of not missing out on the "super cycle."
But let me be clear—there will be no super cycle. Crypto has never had one. Riding the waves of the four-year cycle is straightforward, but somehow, every four years, we manage to overcomplicate things.
I’ve done my fair share of complicating things too, but at least I’m better positioned now than I was in 2021. The bubble will burst at some point this year—no one knows exactly when. But a super cycle? Forget it.
Hell will break loose in 2026, but until then, enjoy the ride...
Thanks for your attention,
Adrian