In November 2017, I bought my first crypto—10 LTC. It was $50 a coin back then, and I sold it for $55. Managed to pull off a massive $50 profit on that investment. Little did I know at the time that the bull market was about to end, and instead of making money from crypto, I’d lose a few grand.
Why did I sell the LTC before it went parabolic? Because I was scared of losing my money. But once peak euphoria kicked in, I was no longer afraid at all. I ended up buying tops all the way into the bear market. I went along with the masses... and did the same thing in 2021.
But this time is different. It has to be different. I mean, you’ve got to learn at some point, right? And what better way than by learning from your mistakes? Here’s what I’ve learned from seven years in crypto and what I plan on doing differently this bull market.
I don’t do TA. I have basic knowledge of reading charts on a large time frame, and I find it pointless trying to day trade and outsmart the market. But I don’t consider myself someone you should be learning TA from. What I do like is studying the behavior of the masses, and that’s a skill that can help a lot in navigating the bull market properly.
No one’s going to knock on your door and tell you the top is near. You have to figure that out yourself if you want to survive this market. Pay attention to social media and traditional media. Once these two are filled with “crypto boom” headlines and success stories from so-called crypto investors, know that the end is near.
This bull market will end. Please don’t fall for the “super cycle” narrative or the claim that we’ll never have bear markets again. We will—both in traditional markets and crypto. And trust me, entering a bear market poor is painful as fuck. I know that.
Another key sign that we’re approaching the top? Non-technical individuals like family members and friends finally asking, "How do I buy crypto?" They didn’t ask in 2022 or 2023 because they were scared of the recession. But they will when everything’s through the roof, and they don’t want to miss out.
Another important metric to watch is crypto exchanges posting "daily records" for onboarding new users on Twitter. Retail has never been on time in any market, and that’s telling. If retail were right about anything, we’d all live in a better world. So when crypto exchanges start mass onboarding, take that as a top signal.
Checking Google Trends from time to time is also a habit I stick with. It reveals a lot about what investors are doing. When "How to buy Bitcoin" or "Best altcoins for 2025" hit their ATH on Google Trends, we’ll already be close to the top.
Crypto will once again be called "easy money," and that’s when retail will realize they’re riding a train headed straight for a wall. The speed prices move during the uptrend will mirror the drop during the bear market. As they say, there’s no overbought in a bull market and no oversold in a bear market.
I don’t know how much money I’ll make this bull market. I have hopes, but I’m not stubbornly holding onto my bags as we enter the euphoria phase without taking profits. Nailing the exact top is tough, which is why my wealth-building plan is made up of a base sell level that stretches to extreme levels that might or might not get hit.
I believe balance is key. It’s best to lock in profits, but don’t sell everything at once—leave something on the table for those insane levels. This way, you make sure your money’s working for you the right way. And remember: winning is winning.
That’s it from my side for now. Wishing you all a great Monday, and I’ll catch you next time.
Thanks for your attention,
Adrian