It might not seem like it as bitcoin continues to push forward now upwards of $90,000 per but it seems to be starting to stall out and go back into a bouncing pattern. Normally when this bounce starts happening we see a drastic move in one direction. Either a massive sell off as a large cap holder takes their profits. Or another rally as new adoption takes place.
Now remember we talked about institutional investors still not getting in on the game. All of this rally so far has been mainly sparked by retail investors once again. A small fraction of that and money value is actully coming in from large investors.
As we have seen in the past factors of actions of tokens are already calculated in months ahead of time and often it's a sell the news event. For instance when bitcoin ETFs where approved. For a full year maybe even a year and a half we saw bitcoin move from $16,000 lows to $70,000 all because of the rumor's of bitcoin ETFs getting approved and the push towards that. But when the news broke and it finally happened we got a small sell off and just bounced for months slowly lowering for 8 months after.
The next major catalyst is what just happened now and that was Trump getting elected as many in crypto expect it to be a very pro cryptocurrency government. But that's all going to take time to really get the wheels in motion and from the looks of it, it seems like a low priority item to Trump as the boarder and other things have been his main talking points now so we will have to see.
For those of you thinking we haven't been in a bull run I think you need a major wake up call. In under two years bitcoin has gone from $16,000 to it's price today.
Now idk about you but that chart looks like we are peaking at a top of a bull run and not so much getting started into one. That means a lot of riding on some bit pro crypto regulations coming out in 2025 and if not I could see a rather drastic sell off as a lot of that speculation priced in would get wiped out.
What's clear is that 2025 is going to be a big year in terms of what we see from the government and how much real adoption happens. What would be optimal is for pro regulations to come out that are clear so businesses will do startups here in the USA to invest in which will be large capital funds.
Just like we saw with the AI boon which honestly feels like a lot of fluff and already dying out the same would go for crypto in terms of the boon cycle if we got more businesses and governments in on bitcoin.
FED Today
We are also getting some new hints on things in particular that of the FED and what many were expecting to be another 25 point rate cut in December might be coming off the table. To be honest with you I think the fed should keep rates. They should have kept them and only done a 25 point reduction in September and that's it for this year I feel like we would be in a better spot. Although a bit of a struggle sure it's a struggle I rather pay lower for now than crazy higher later so my hopes are that rate stays the same rolling into 2025 otherwise we could very well see inflation come back to record highs.
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