It is October 21st, and there are about 10 days left in the month. If anything, I am glad the month is almost over. Why? October has not quite lived up to expectations. However, do not FUD just yet; October has done its thing, and BTC has moved from around 64k to 69k since the beginning of the month, and it is currently hovering around 66k, (just dumped) which is not entirely bad.
I believe UPtober was overestimated, but in all honesty, it did what it was supposed to do; we simply overestimated how much of a pump we might have this time around.
The UPtober Expectation
Talking about expectations, we all thought
that there would be a resemblance to what happened in the previous cycle, but if there is one thing this cycle has taught us going forward, it is that the subsequent market cycle will be dynamic and will not exactly resemble past events.
Future events will most likely delay or accelerate market phenomena, which I believe does not preclude the possibility of a bull or bear market; rather, it simply means that things will no longer be the same. October has almost always been a bullish month, but this time is different, and I will explain why.
First and foremost, this cycle has demonstrated that things are no longer the same; if people had taken profits in 2017 and 2021, we might not have noticed the difference in this cycle, but events are beginning to determine the timing of some specific trends in this current cycle. It is not entirely a bad thing.
A time will come when alts will no longer be dependent on the movement of BTC; this could happen in 50 to 100 years, but I do not believe we have enough adoption to do so right now.
The disparity in the timing of market events is evidence that crypto will not always follow the four-year cycle, and there will be a gradual shift in how the cycles may appear. I do not want to believe that things like the US elections, Fed rates, or the Middle East war are the reason we are still lagging; we had COVID in 2020, but the bull run happened.
Market Dynamism
In my opinion, what is currently happening is that the cycle is experiencing market dynamism. This is why people are so scared. The cycle has failed to resemble the last one, causing most people to panic. I simply believe that it is normal for people to be in a state of uncertainty when the bull is approaching, and that this has occurred in every cycle.
The ETF is one major event that has made this cycle dynamic, and if you think spot ETFs have a small impact, check the money flowing in and out; you will be amazed. The market changes when money flows in and out; timing is irrelevant; it is money that matters. However, we are only having this conversation because the alts have failed to move.
BTC all day long
BTC is performing admirably, and if you bought a year ago, you are likely making a good profit, and now is probably the time to reinvest some of that money in alts. ETH is proof that alts have not been doing well; because it is the alpha alt, we mostly look at its movement to determine the alts' true positions.
However, Eth has finally moved in the last few days, which I believe is a good thing. BTC's crab walk is one step backwards and two steps forward; we have not had "up up up up"; instead, we have had "up up, down, up up down"; the former indicates a full-fledged bull market, while the latter is typical of a uptober. So I believe eth moving is beneficial.
It is been completely flat for a long time, and I believe October is mostly over. In my opinion, November should be completely bullish, but we have yet to see what the market has in store for the rest of the month. So, everyone should try to get through the end of the year while staying ready for Q1 2025.
Interested in some more of my works
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