Over the week of December 15–20, 2024, Minnesota’s North Shore was hit by a winter blast that felt like a classic, old-fashioned snowstorm. Arctic air swept southward, brought in by a sharp dip in the polar jet stream, sending temperatures plummeting and dumping heavy snow across the region. Areas along Lake Superior, particularly north of Duluth, saw significant accumulations as lake-effect snow piled on. By the end of the week, lows neared -15.5°C (4°F), with biting winds making conditions even harsher.
The lake effect played a big role here. As the cold air passed over the relatively warm waters of Lake Superior, it picked up moisture, creating heavier snowfalls in places closer to the lake. Areas north of Duluth bore the brunt of this, with swirling winds making conditions even tougher. Visibility dropped, roads got slick, and winter reminded everyone who’s boss.
But as dramatic as it all was, the story didn’t end there—because much of that snow quickly began to melt.
How This Fits Into the Bigger Climate Picture
These weather patterns—like the Arctic blast and snowstorm—are part of the natural ups and downs of winter in the region, but they’re also happening within a larger climate story. Minnesota’s winters have been warming over the past century, with average temperatures rising by about 1.7°C (3°F). Winters are warming faster than other seasons, and precipitation is also increasing, which means more big snowfalls and heavy rains. On the surface, this recent cold snap might feel like it goes against the idea of warming winters, but here’s the twist: a warming climate can actually make events like this more likely.
The culprit may be changes in the polar vortex, a ring of high-speed winds that usually traps cold air near the Arctic. When the vortex weakens—which some researchers think is happening more often because of climate change—it allows chunks of that frigid air to escape southward. So even as winters warm overall, the occasional bitter cold snap still comes roaring through, sometimes feeling more intense than before.
The heavy snow? That lines up perfectly with climate projections. Warmer air holds more moisture, so when conditions are right, it can dump a lot of snow. The sudden deep freeze? That’s more about the quirks of atmospheric patterns like the jet stream, which are influenced but not entirely rewritten by climate change. These patterns remind us that while the planet’s climate is warming, local and seasonal weather can still pack a chilly punch, with a soggy kick.
What Melting Snow Means for the Land
The warm conditions that followed the storm added an interesting twist. Instead of a lasting snowpack, much of the snow disappeared almost as fast as it came. Last week, I wrote about how the land shapes and is shaped by natural flows—of water, wind, and life. The rapid transition from heavy snowfall to melting fits right into this theme, with water moving through the landscape in ways that will have profound effects on the local ecology.
For the North Shore, heavy snowfalls followed by quick melts can create dramatic shifts in how water flows across and into the land. When snow melts all at once, the ground may not be able to absorb the water fast enough, especially if the soil is frozen underneath. This can lead to surface runoff, swelling streams and rivers, and sometimes causing erosion. For the forests and wetlands of the North Shore, this surge of water can be both a blessing and a challenge.
On the one hand, melting snow contributes to replenishing groundwater and provides much-needed hydration for plants and trees once the ground thaws. But when snowmelt happens too quickly, it can wash away topsoil and nutrients, disrupting delicate ecosystems. As I wrote, living with the rhythms of the land requires attentiveness to its flows—this kind of rapid melt challenges us to adapt our understanding of what "normal" water movement looks like in a changing climate.
Ecology in a Warmer, Wetter Winter
This week’s weather highlights an emerging trend: warmer winters with episodic heavy precipitation. While more snow or rain can mean an abundance of water, the timing and form of its delivery can be disruptive. Quick melts from heavy snowfall can stress forests and wetlands, as plants adapted to gradual snowmelt cycles may struggle to cope with sudden water influxes. This could shift the composition of plant species, favoring those more tolerant of variability but potentially displacing others that depend on stable conditions.
Additionally, for wildlife, snowpack provides essential insulation during the cold months. It keeps the ground warmer for burrowing animals and helps protect root systems and dormant vegetation from extreme cold. Without a lasting snowpack, animals and plants alike lose this natural buffer. This interplay between warmer winters, episodic snowfall, and rapid melting creates a feedback loop that challenges the balance of the land.
Looking Forward with the Land
This past week’s weather underscores how the rhythms of the North Shore are changing. Heavy snowfalls in warmer winters remind us how the land absorbs, redirects, and even resists these shifts. Whether through erosion, flooding, or replenishment, the land is teaching us about its capacity to adapt—and asking us to do the same. For those attuned to the ecology of the North Shore, events like this are both a call to action and a lesson in humility, as we learn to flow with a climate and landscape in flux.
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