In 2024 the global average temperature reached almost 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels, the highest on record.
Most of this rise has been attributed to global warming and the El Nino weather system, but scientists have been at a loss to explain around 0.2% of the increase, until some recent research coming out of Germany.
Analysis of satellite data has revealed that there was around 1.5% less cloud cover in 2024 compared to 2023, which is the most obvious explanation for the extra increase in global warming.
The team think if cloud cover had been at the same level last year as it was in 2023 global temperatures would have been around 0.23 degrees cooler.
Clouds reflect sunlight, as you might expect given that this is just bloody obvious at the most basic level of observation: it's immediately cooler down here when the sun goes behind the clouds.
The irony behind fewer clouds...
All of this might be down to natural variation but another theory as to why there are fewer clouds is improved air quality. Pollution can help with cloud formation, and so the cleaner the air, the fewer the clouds.
Hopefully this is just a kind of 'warming transition' as presumably better air quality means there are less warming emissions too and so this is something of a data lag.
But of course climate science is challenging given the huge amount of variables at play, and the fact that every year we find ourselves in new territory as to how these variables interact.
And of course while we have fewer clouds overall, the distribution of this cloud cover is, if anything, more polarised, with more extreme weather systems resulting in more flood events.
So while this general trend might well be true globally, it doesn't feel like it to those on the wrong side of the global warming trend!
And at the end of the day this just sounds like more uncertainty thrown into the mix!