...but it's a bull year, right?
It's way too early to get bearish, but I have to admit that the current downtrend has taken me off guard. I was highly confident that January was going to be the start of the alt season. So far, however, the markets have been tanking hard with some calling the $TRUMP mania a market top signal. It also doesn't help that $RUNE is scrambling for survival amidst a debt crisis (the whole revamped concept was a terrible idea of course, but here we are). Pretty much all coins have not really moved in any significant way when we look at the bigger picture. The alt market has essentially been flat lining for 4 years.
Looking at this chart again, we can see that the alt season has actually lasted for around 2 years in the last 2 cycles. It always happened when price broke through a resistance trend line coming from the previous highs. So what does this mean for the current cycle?
It's ambiguous to me. It seems far fetched to argue that the alt season will start in Q1 of 2025 and conclude in 2027. That would "mess up" the 4 year cycle. We could also argue that the alt season has already been ongoing for some time and it will simply be shorter and less volatile this time. Let's have a look.
First, if we assume the alt season already started it could have been in August of 2024. The alt season would then be a bit shorter than the previous one with less growth. The trend lines here seem to do a good job in predicting a possible top. It honestly, seems reasonable since less growth is what we can expect with every cycle (since it takes more and more money to push higher).
But I have a problem with the start date being in summer of last year. So far the season has always kicked off after the 1-2-3 pattern completed. However, this could mean that the season then starts in Q1 of 2025, which is very late. We essentially have conflicting signals.
- We can't have the 2 years coupled with the breakout of the pattern if the cycle remains 4 years overall
I have a hard time shifting the whole 4 year cycle, although the length isn't set in stone. It will probably break at one time.
Conclusion
I can't give a clear outlook here. On the one hand it seems like there are only around 10 months left (with an extremely short season), on the other hand I wonder if things could shift to the back and we could see a peak in 2026-2027 (yes, it feels even ridiculous to write it).
I mean, does that look right to you?
It would be kinda cool though...
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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