What started in Manchester City this season seemed like whatever it was the season before, but as the club continues a downside toward what seems like oblivion we have to ask: What is happening with Manchester City?

As I previously stated, this is not a first in Manchester City's history under Pep Guardiola. Every season Pep Guardiola decides something new even when the old didn't really stop working. Often it ended with great results eventually like winning a treble and often it resulted in losing the league to Liverpool and bowing out of the competition early on. This seems eerily close to the example of the latter in more ways than one.

Snowballing

What people need to understand about such falls out of form is that they're not really a streak but more like a snowball. This is not an Avengers movie where one small win regains form and all bad is forgotten. It takes more than that despite how Ted Lasso would say otherwise. A snowball is about multiplications more than it is about an addition. Man City started this season trying a new idea, but it didn't exactly work. However, that wasn't the only result of that experiment. Hear me out here.

It wasn't only the idea but also it coincided with a similar issue to City's 2019-2020 season as injuries wouldn't let up. That led to fewer options which created more problems. So, I have a problem, and while solving it another one occurred. Now, I have two problems, and while solving them another occurred and so on. Look at it as an inflation of issues if you well.

A finishing problem becomes a chance creation problem which in turn becomes a build-up problem, now you have a finishing problem, a chance creation problem, and a build-up problem. Would it end there? No. Because now since you have a build-up problem, teams get greedy and start pressuring you harder and deeper. Now, you have a defensive problem as well.

You would think it would stop there, but no as throughout all of that you also have an injury crisis similar to that of the 2019-2020 season. All of that is happening and you're barely three months into the season.

What makes this problem worse is that you're dealing with the worst manager to handle such a snowball, Pep Guardiola. Why is he the worst? Well, in order to answer that, we'd have to take a detour into other clubs and see how they handled their snowball.

Arsenal

Arsenal happens to be the easiest example and this shouldn't take long to explain this goes back to something I wrote here more than four years ago: You have a dirty glass of water in your hands and you keep adding water to it. Arteta solved it best, the solution was emptying the club, cleaning up all the dirt and then slowly pouring clean water in. The solution was a squad reset.

Manchester United

Manchester United needed a similar reset to that of Arsenal but opted for a manager reset every other year. Each manager came with his own set of players and eventually, you ended with a Frankstien squad that could do some of many things, but no one thing in particular. I am far from the smartest in any room I am in, but, if you hold a gun to my head, I can't even name a tactic or formation that more than 5-6 players of the squad can play well.

I am not defending Ten Haag here, I am personally disappointed with him. But are you really solving anything with his departure? There are more things to say about Manchester United, including examples of why there's no tactic or formation to work for that club, but let's keep this City focused. Manchester United are the worst to handle a snowball, Arsenal are much better but far from the best. So, let's move on to the best two examples.

Chelsea's

Chelsea's snowball from last season might be the furthest to apply to Manchester City. But, it is worth covering nonetheless.

As we know Chelsea went haywire under Boehly and started signing every player under the sun. If you were under 22 in the last three years, odds are there is a Chelsea representative talking with your club management. Tuchel, Potter, Lampard, and Pochettino all couldn't figure out what to do with the enormous squad, but then Enzo Maresca came in with the answer; you don't.

It sounds dumb, but the fact is the enormous squad wasn't the problem for any of the coaches to solve, it was the club management. Maresca simply said, "I don't care about the 40-something players you provided I will take 18 and work with those."

The solution after that was simple, who is our best player? Palmer, okay, move him to his best position. Enzo doesn't work as a number 6 all the time, let's have Lavia and Caicedo there instead. Then it became who is the wide players and so on. Yes, you're going to miss often seeing the magic of Felix or Nkunku, but sometimes you just need the best team, not the best 11 players. But, that if the solution is simple, what if the solution is even simpler?

Liverpool

We could refer to the original Snowball of Liverpool where it got a similar treatment to Arsenal's once Klopp took over with the slow fixing, but we already covered that kind of solution for Arsenal. So, let's get into Liverpool's 2022-2023 season as it is very similar to City's this season. You're Jurgen Klopp, there's an injury crisis, solutions not working, individuals not working and morale down, what do you do? Well, Klopp did... well, nothing.

I am not saying Klopp just waited for problems to solve themselves. But, Liverpool kept trying to do what they knew until they did it successfully. Because sometimes when the basics aren't working, you don't attempt to make it more complicated, you wait for the basics to work. That is exactly what makes Guardiola the worst person to have facing this problem.

Back to Guardiola

Faced with similar issues, Guardiola’s response is to upend everything: experimenting wildly with lineups, as seen with Grealish in midfield or Akanji’s unorthodox passing. This denial of circumstances exacerbates problems. Guardiola’s public comments, reminiscent of Mourinho, add fuel to the fire. Yet, his job security remains unmatched, ensuring he can weather even the harshest storm.

City’s snowball grows because Guardiola’s solutions are part of the problem. Sometimes, the best approach is to simplify, stay the course, and wait for the storm to pass.