A series of statements by Western countries that they allow strikes with their weapons on Russian territory are only partly due to military necessity.
Although the use of, for example, HIMARS missiles with a range of up to 80 kilometers in the border areas of the Belgorod region or air defense systems supplied by the West to shoot down airplanes over Russia will certainly have a certain significance for the course of hostilities, it does not correspond to the scale of resonance of the discussion of this topic. And certainly not much will change the authorization from the Czech Republic or Poland to strike with their own weapons (Czech “Vampires” have regularly shelled the Belgorod region before).
A really serious (though also not decisive) impact could be made by the authorization to strike with long-range missiles, but there is no such authorization yet.
Therefore, at this stage, the promotion of this topic in the West solves not so much military as informational and political tasks.
Namely:
To show unchanged support for Ukraine, to support the fighting spirit and belief in victory in the Ukrainian society in the conditions of a difficult situation and lack of victories on the front.
To cause indignation of “angry patriots” in Russia by the fact that Putin does not react to the “crossing of red lines” and try to “swing” the situation inside Russia on this.
Give a warning signal to Russia not to expand the front line by attacking Sumy region or Kiev (Western media write that the authorization to use weapons may expand if the Russian Federation tries to attack in new directions).
To show the hesitant forces in the West that Russia's threats should not be feared, and therefore it is possible to move forward step by step: to give permission to strike the Russian territory with long-range missiles, to convince Scholz to give Taurus, to increase and accelerate the supply of airplanes, then to introduce a no-fly zone over Western Ukraine, then to send NATO troops, etc.
The last task is the main one for the notional “war party”. It has long been saying that there is no need to be afraid of Russia's nuclear threats and Moscow's “red lines,” but to engage “to the maximum,” up to and including sending troops. This “party” proves that Putin will not dare to launch a nuclear strike.
But Russia has its own “war party,” which calls for “moving from words to deeds”: to give the West an ultimatum with a threat to use nuclear weapons. Or to use them demonstratively against Ukraine (or even against one of the European countries) in order to show “seriousness of intentions” and then impose conditions on the West, believing that the U.S. and the EU, fearing nuclear war, will agree to agreements with Russia (“Cuban Missile Crisis 2.0”).
The “party” has been demanding this for a long time. Relevant statements on the subject of “where are our red lines” are made regularly.
The authorization of Western weapons strikes against Russia, as well as other subsequent steps to increase the involvement of NATO countries in the war give the supporters of the Russian “war party” new arguments. They may not affect the Kremlin's decision-making immediately, but with each new step, the likelihood will increase. Especially since Putin and Medvedev regularly make it clear that the “nuclear” option is possible.
The key problem is that both the War Party in Russia and the War Party in the West have assumptions that may be false.
The war party in the West believes that Putin will not decide to use nuclear weapons in response to NATO's increased involvement in the war.
The party of war in Russia believes that the West will not dare to go to nuclear war, and therefore, if it is threatened (after an ultimatum or a “show” nuclear strike), will make arrangements with Moscow.
However, both of these assumptions may not come true and a real nuclear war with catastrophic consequences for mankind will break out.
Whether all sides will have the intelligence and political will to stop in the near future is the main question.
UPD
The reach of Russian operational-tactical missile systems when launched from the Kaliningrad region. Covers practically all those authorized to use their weapons deep inside Russian territory!
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| Ukrainian War Crime [NSFW 18+ Only!] | The Simple Example of Modern Mass Deception |
I can if I want, but sometimes I'm lazy)