Recently, I've been buying every Pelacor Conjurer I can. It started after a great video from @hawks21, where he explains why he's buying some of the Rewards cards (mainly Pelacor Conjurer & Pelacor Bandit, as well as a couple of the others).
So far I've accumulated about 1500 BCX, and my goal is to have >10k which at the current prices would be worth about $260.
I've also maxxed out a Gold Foil, which I play with to earn the DEC bonus. I plan on buying more Golds over time as well to rent out.
But there's 8M of these suckers, why are you doing this??
It's a reasonable question. Only about 38% of the supply is currently printed, and the max supply is around 8M BCX. That's a lot, right? Actually, if you think about it, it's not completely ridiculous. It takes 400 BCX to max the card out, which means there can only ever be 20,000 maxxed copies in existence.
If there can only ever be 20k maxxed copies, the next question to ask is whether there would be demand for 20k maxxed copies. A maxxed common card will only be used in Diamond league and above, so the question then is whether you believe there will be >20k players in those leagues in the future. If we're just going to Level 8 (for Gold) then you'd be looking at ~36k max copies, but of course those don't stack so let's take the average. Will there be >28k players across Gold, Diamond, and Champion in the future?
Furthermore, there's a question of whether players in Gold and above would even want a Pelacor Conjurer. When you look at commonly played cards it comes up often, and generally with a pretty good win rate. Of course it's an accessible card at today's prices, so that makes sense. But let's compare it to a similar card that is highly demanded, the Failed Summoner from the Earth Splinter.
| CATEGORY | PELACOR CONJURER | FAILED SUMMONER |
|---|---|---|
| Edition | Rewards (CL) | Untamed |
| Splinter | Life | Earth |
| Mana | 2 | 2 |
| Attack | None | None |
| Speed | 5 | 2 |
| Health | 8 | 9 |
| Level 1 | Flying | Magic Reflect |
| Level 2 | - | - |
| Level 3 | - | - |
| Level 4 | Magic Reflect | - |
| Level 5 | - | - |
| Level 6 | - | Demoralize |
| Level 7 | Divine Shield | - |
| Level 8 | - | - |
| Level 9 | - | - |
| Level 10 | Phase | Strengthen |
| Total BCX (max print) | ~8,000,000 | ~210,000 |
| BCX printed | 3,012,825 | 207,787 |
| Cards in circulation | 1,038,797 | 32,984 |
| Max cards @ Max LVL | ~20,000 | ~500 |
| Price / BCX (Regular) | $0.026 | $2.02 |
| Price / BCX (Gold) | ~$8 | $41 |
| Est. MC (Fully diluted) | $208,000 | ~$424,000 |
Comparing the stats, you can see they're very similar. They're both 2-mana cost and have Magic Reflect. Conjurer has 8 health while Summoner has 9, which makes the Summoner slightly sturdier... EXCEPT that the Conjurer has 5 speed (3 more than the Failed Summoner), Flying, Divine Shield, AND Phase! That's an awesome set of abilities when maxxed, and makes the Pelacor Conjurer WAY more durable. Of course the Failed Summoner makes up for it with a team debuff (Demoralize) and a team buff (Strengthen) which are both quite powerful. The edge will depend on the battle, but you can't deny both are fantastic cards.
So why's the Failed Summoner so much more expensive? 1 BCX costs $2.02 for Failed Summoner vs $0.26 for Pelacor Conjurer at today's prices - that's 78x more! It comes down to rarity, so let's look at that. The Failed Summoner can only ever have 500 maxxed copies, which is WAY less (40x less to be precise). Let's take a metric we commonly use to compare crypto - market cap. If you take the Conjurer's market cap (fully diluted, i.e. 8M BCX) it's about $208k, while for Failed Summoner it's about $424k. Using this metric, my conclusion is that Failed summoner is trading at roughly a 2x premium over Conjurer assuming similar utility. I would argue the Conjurer's utility is actually higher, but that's a bit of a personal point of view.
To summarize, here's what I believe:
- Pelacor Conjurer is a very powerful card, on par with Failed Summoner if not better
- It trades at a 50% discount to Failed Summoner when looking at fully diluted market cap
- There can only ever be 20k max copies of Conjurer, so if you believe Splinterlands will continue to grow there will be a supply crunch of even this card
Oh one last thing - please don't buy Pelacor Conjurers, because I want them all.
