In following post I will take a look at Rebellion cards price/set value historically and speculate on future price change (after conflicts end).
5th core set in history of Splinterlands - Rebellion general sale started 5th of December 2023. Since then about 950k packs were either sold or given out as bonus (for purchasing packs in bulk). That is little less than we all expected, but who knows what can still happen ...
So, back to initial question - What will happen to Rebellion cards/packs price in the future???
Short answer: I have zero idea! Web3 and/or Splinterlands does not cease to surprise ...😅
Shorter answer: It will go up n down. 🤣
Attempt at speculating ...
www.splintercards.com data showing maxed set price last 6 months.
- We have to consider historical price movement (as shown on graph). Most importantly "all-time low" being just over 4k $ and "all-time high" (at least last 6 months) just over 7k $.
Even though at first glance that kind of price changes look wonky and "unstable", we have to keep in mind $DEC, $SPS and Splinterlands assets fluctuation in general. Recently (few months) ago we saw $SPS all-time low, $DEC following, etc. ... All things considered, due to low supply and conflicts being a thing, Rebellion held quite well through that!
- We are currently in last conflict (out of 9) and there is only 20+ days left for it. Due to nature of Rebellion release its reasonable to assume conflicts are one of main driving forces behind relative price stability, establishing "artificial" floor even for less valuable (play-wise) cards. Even though I don`t believe most of players hold their cards (and/or extras) just for conflicts, its still reasonable to expect some do. Those players will be looking to sell (at least their extras) as soon as final conflict ends or comes very close to that. It also worth considering that some did that already to front-run expected price drop.
Bonus item!
Check out my "luck"😝 ... (Had 2 guaranteed in first 4 conflicts and 3 in last 4)
- Another thing worth considering are most op Rebellion cards and their prices. Just by glancing at them, we can see they are valued very high and with good reason as they are currently meta defining in modern. Instead of price dropping, exact opposite is happening for quite some time now.
For screenshots I chose my 3 fav cards, but there are many many more ... Those cards are here to stay and be dominant (at least for foreseeable future)!
$SPS price monthly chart
- Another thing (IMO most important!) to keep in mind is broader crypto market and Splinterlands ecosystem as a whole and/or $SPS price. Any upward movement on $SPS side will trickle over into Rebellion as Modern ranked dominant set. Higher $ rewards per win means people will want to win more and with that feel need to acquire better cards ...
SUMMARY
Conflicts ending wont have positive price impact on Rebellion, there is no way around it. Especially worse cards that don´t see as much playtime will suffer as general floor will disappear.
But that being said, I still think that will be just a bump in a road for Rebellion, since we can look forward to general sale ending and (hopefully) $SPS price increasing. Even without that most dominant cards (looking at u TOFU and VENKA) will continue to hold their juicy value for foreseeable future and/or till meta drastically changes.IDK for you ... but I`m still in BUY/HOLD camp!
Till next time ...Yours truly, yours creepily - creeptor
BTW; Hive games referral links ...
https://golemoverlord.com/?ref=creeptor
https://splinterlands.com/?ref=creeptor
