Splinterlands Card Population Spotlight - Episode 13 02.05.22-07.05.22
In this series I am going to drop 5 Random cards into the spotlight to analyse population decline over the course of the week or period of time. The aim of these posts are to hopefully get people to identify the deflationary pressure rate on certain cards relative to their price and popularity and hopefully help you determine which cards you may need to make a move on (before they become out of reach financially). This episode I am having a look at a range of regular foil cards. My analysis is primarily focussed on what I see of each card in Bronze, Silver & Gold level leagues. I hope you enjoy!
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Phantasm
Phantasm - Reward Series - Death - Common
Abilities: Fly (lvl 1), Return Fire (lvl 5), Retaliate (lvl 9)
The Phantasm is a Frontline Low-Mid Tier Tank boasting the starting Flight Ability. For 6 Summoning points this floating Spirit will deliver 2 damage and early on in the round order with it's 4 Speed. With 7 starting Health, you end up with a well rounded Tank that can evade many attempts to breach the front line of your line-up.
Thoughts - Considering Phantasm currently sits at just 11 cents at time of writing, I think surely we would see interest among those working to level up budget Death Tanks. And while the Cursed Windeku may hold the edge in terms of value, for about the same price you can own one of these at level 2 with 5 Speed. Add the Flying Ability and I think you have a decent alternative for earthquake battle scenarios. For 137k population in what many believe to be a bottoming market, 150+ burns in the last week shows us we are seeing interest as Splinterlands hopefuls look to capitalise on bargain pricing. Phantasm was the only other reward GF in a bronze daily that I managed to score during the Dice/Untamed release period in my early ventures into Splinterlands and initially I did find use for it as an alternative to Haunted Spirit. Alot has changed since then and while I still recommend Cursed Windeku as the budget staple of the Death Splinter, I do believe it wouldn't hurt to own one for the Earthquake scenario. Particularly at level 4 with a 3rd attack point and level 5 with the Retaliate Ability coming into play for those in Silver and above. I can't say I've played with a level 5 yet so I can't be certain of it's value in terms of ROI but I imagine it would be a viable option at that point. In terms of investment, I do believe at current price you will see decent returns once the market flips, keeping in mind we are still yet to see a +1 attack Death Summoner which would be huge for usecase. Buy with caution as this card has a few competitors and one that is definitely a more popular option that may impact future desirability.
Price Change: $.18-$.11
Regular Foil Population Change: 137,870-137,614
Goblin Dartling
Goblin Dartling - Dice Series - Earth - Common
Abilities: Shatter (lvl 5), knockout (lvl 10)
The Goblin Dartling is a cheap, low end Ranged unit, particularly employed in such a manner. Often found nagging frontlines, at level 5 it gains the Shatter Ability which can be useful in armoured battles.
Thoughts - A card I rarely see these days but like the Goblin Fireballer and Herbalist, this card is pulled out for low end battles and can make the difference in the heat of battle. I am always bullish on low manna cards as they are always handy options to fill in a spot as cannon fodder or to finish off your spending and often provide good buffs for value once leveled up to give you the edge over opponentsd fielding level 1 varieties. These days, I don't see myself using it as much as I too, like most others, don't have a Prince Rennyn to deploy and I found Acid Shooter to be the better option to use. that leaves me to think as we go into newer generations of Splinterlands, will this card eventually find itself in the Splinterlands graveyard of undesirables? And what I mean by that is that I expect that many of these cards that become obsolete and sent to plough the fields of game Plots to produce ROI for their owners once retired from use. Right now though the going is still good and price is even better. And this has driven more than 150 burns from less than 35k Population. And then I ask myself if I am missing the bullseye with the Dartling? Maybe I am being a little hard on it for now as it is cheap and a good budget option for leveling up.
Price Change: $.21-$.17
Regular Foil Population Change: 34,544-34,386
Alric Stormbringer
Alric Stormbringer - Beta Series - Water - Rare
Abilities: Summoner - +1 Magic
Alric Stormbringer is a Summoner that provide a +1 Magic buff to all friendly Magic units. Be careful when Alric is around, your armour is almost always of no use!
Thoughts - To this day, Alric remains a very popular option for Water Magic strategy. Prior to Chaos, Alric seen an eye watering price tag of $200+ after the release of Djinn Oshannus and Venari Wavesmith to add to the Untamed Magic lineup. It was at this point that there were virtually no counters strong enough as opponent after oppoent fell short in the lower leagues if they didn't have a decent counter. It was not uncommon to see Bortus used to stem the advantage which drove up it's price also. Since then, the playing field and counters have grown and so Alric has taken a bit of a backseat in price where it has now stabalised to just $60. I'm sorry if you were one of those who paid $100+ for it but it just wasn't there for me to justify buying one; Says the person who paid an exorbitant price on Yodin... But Alric is still powerful and like Obsidian, it can lay devastation to unsuspecting opponents and so I remain bullish on it's use as a Summoner for playing ROI, and somewhat bullish on it's long term ROI in the financial department. Can it get back to $200 per bcx? I think so but I think one needs to be prepared to hold for a number of years and a quick flip is not on the cards. In fact when looking at cards for financial ROI, one is almost always better off banking popular cheap cards in the hope they will stay popular for several years into their deflation. It's something to consider but boy I wish I owned a level 3+ for battle but I just can't justify the funds for it atm. We could be waiting many releases before we see another Water Summoner that will provide a positive +1 magic buff but I am prepared to look elsewhere and wait for that chance.
Price Change:$77.90-$60.00
Regular Foil Population Change: 8,032-8,027
Dragon Whelp
Dragon Whelp - Promo Series - Dragon - Common
Abilities: Flying (lvl 1), Throns (lvl 6)
The Dragon Whelp is a low manna, backline Magic unit. With the Fly ability and slow speed, Reverse speed battle conditions are where you'll likely find this Whelp Breathing fire on opponents.
Thoughts - I don't believe I have ever seen this card in play. With such a low population and limited use case where one might find value, it's hard for me to consider this for battle or investment. I can't comment on what I don't have experience dealing with, but purely from a long term strategy, I would say owning this is more about owning it than actually using it. However, Reverse Speed conditions in a low summoning point battle may give handy buffer against Snipers looking to eat into your backline. Only other argument for it's use would be with Delwyn Dragonscale for the +1 Magic buff. There is no change in population over the last week. Final thoughts overall, I cannot recommend.
Price Change: $24.99-$24.49
Regular Foil Population Change: 1,930-1,930
Aganju
Aganju - Dice Series - Fire - Legendary
Abilities: Reach (lvl 1)
Aganju is a Reach card that is useful as cannon fodder in low manna battles. For just 1 Manna it's a budget option.
Thoughts - I literally didn't even realise this card existed until I went searching for new cards to take a look at! Admit it, you didn't know that it existed either! A tiny population of just 745 remain, making it among the rarest cards in Splinterlands or the Sub 1000 club! I have never seen it in action but for just 1 Summoning point, we could easily find a use in those 12 manna Fire battles. Maybe a Tarsa with a Cerberus at the front and a +1 Att & Health Aganju and suddenly the 3 speed makes this a viable option. Throw in a Serpentine Spy or a Kobald minor with Creeping Ooze and suddenly Aganju fits right into the strategy. I can't however justify the price Tag no matter how rare it is. But if you have a few spare SPS, maybe you can? At level 2 +1 Speed and Health and again at Level 3 and Suddenly Aganju becomes almost inexpendable 1 manna option. But currently with a $40 BCX price tag, you may find it a little pricey and there are definitely other options out there that are cheaper. That would be the Flame Monkey that comes to mind, which obviously doesn't have the reach ability but can serve as handy 1 Manna cannon fodder and can be taken to level 5 at a fraction of the price. Where does this leave Aganju? Exactly where it continues to sit for most...In the Digital dust pile. Short term, I am unsure even a $40 price tag will hold as I just don't see the interest no matter how cool it may be once levelled up. And so I make the bold call now that we may even see Aganju fall some $ further to a lower price tag in the current market. Long term though, it's hard not to think with just 745 left in existence that with new players coming into the game, demand just to own will eventually overide price tag and send it into the Splintersphere.
Price Change: $45.93-$39.98
Regular Foil Population Change: 745-745
SPOTLIGHT EPISODE 6 REVISTED
Goblin Mech
Goblin Mech - Reward Series - Neutral - Common
Abilities: Piercing (lvl 1), Stun (lvl 6)
The Goblin Mech is a Heavy Tank used in higher Summoning Point Battles. Equipped with 4 attack, 3 Speed, 5 Armour, 6 Health and the starting Piercing Ability, this Mech comes packed with value for it's 10 Summoning Points.
Thoughts - A highly versatile card, the Goblin Mech is a must for all. One of the strongest common tanks getting around, there is no shortage of use case and that's makes it common to see. Whether you are using it for aggressive or defensive strategy, the Goblin Mech in my opinion will deliver under a range of conditions including opportunity or sneak scenarios. If you add in the fact that it is a neutral card, it only adds to use case for nearly all match scenarios and all splinters. For this reason, I am bullish on this as one to own and one to invest in. It's current low price is too juicy to ignore and some were lucky enough just recently to score this for under $1. If you haven't 'Meched' up yet, you just haven't lived and are missing out. Long term, I cannot see this fading away and believe as we see the pop limit push down to 50k, the price tag will increase. I think it's value potential could easily go to double figures. At a guess, I'd say it would not surprise me to see this as a $20 dollar card once the the numbers decrease. But for now, the price will hover in the $1.25-$2.50 range and I do think it will stay there for a while so you have a little time up your sleeve before I think it will push back to $3-$4 range in the short term. But don't wait too long because I think it is on the lower end of it's price range and the deflation is solid for the population numbers.
UPDATE: Well after 2 months, we can safely say my initial thoughts are holding up to this stage. We still see the price tag hovering in the $1.25-$2.50 zone. Deflation remains solid with just under 1,700 burns! that is simply staggering as we begin to watch it head below the 60k zone and downwards towards that 50k zone. Will the second part on my prediction come into play? We have a few months to wait yet but at this rate, we may very well see Population drop below 50K within the next 12 months! I still believe you have the chance to stack these. Hopefully, we might see a few dips to that $1 mark again and when it does, not financial advise, but I won't be hesitating to add a few more. Even now if I find myself with a few spare DEC and I cross paths, I'll throw in a bid for another on PEAKD.
Price Change:$1.60-$1.32
Regular Foil Population Change: 61,929-60,266
Well this wraps up episode 13 of 'Splinterlands Card Population Spotlight' I hope you found some value in this post and hope that you follow to see future posts like this! Feel free to shill your cards you want me to follow for future blogs! Please feel free to follow me and let me know if you want to be part of my tag list or if you want me to remove you. If you want to be tagged for future posts please let me know in the comments!
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Episode 8 Splinterlands Card Population Spotlight
Episode 9 Splinterlands Card Population Spotlight
Episode 10 Spliterlands Card Population Spotlight
Episode 11 Splinterlands Card Population Spotlight
Episode 12 Splinterlands Card Population Spotlight
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