Analyzing Costs for Unbinding Reward Cards

in #hive-13323last month

Translated by ChatGPT.

Today, one of the most anticipated contents for Splinterlands players in the entire past year was published, which was the explanation of how the process of unbinding Reward Cards and making them tradable will work. Additionally, the publication also revealed the new skills and mechanics that will be introduced with the new Reward Cards expansion, but this content will be left for the next post.

Today, I will focus only on the costs of unbinding cards and analyze whether the stipulated values make sense. I strongly recommend reading the full official post as there is a lot of extremely relevant information, but I will summarize the cost definition for performing this unbinding.

It may seem complex, but it is not. Multiply the BCX amount by the card's Power and then multiply again by the "fixed multiplier". This last data will follow the table of days mentioned above, counting from August 15th, meaning we will have only 180 days to decide which cards to unbind until it is no longer possible to make this decision (getting more expensive as time goes by).

Having clarified how the calculation works, let's now analyze whether the presented values make sense. A max level Common Card will cost 20,000 DEC (400 BCX * 5 power * 10) to be unbound, considering the current value, this corresponds to $13.08. Now let's make some comparisons to understand if this makes sense (remember that this is only the base cost, and those who sell them must add some profit on top of that, besides the DEC value being considerably below the desired PEG).

UNBINDING - COMMON MAX LEVEL SOULBOUND

$13.08

(SAME PRICE FOR ALL OTHERS.)

ACQUISITION - COMMON MAX LEVEL CHAOS LEGION

$6.30 $2.10

$1.50 $2.50

ACQUISITION - COMMON MAX LEVEL REBELLION

$63.20 $61.74

$72.97 $18.82

I selected some random cards from the Chaos Legion collections (Rewards and non-Rewards) and Rebellion. Comparing the unbinding cost of Reward Cards with Chaos Legion is unfair because none of them come close to these values. The comparison changes significantly when we analyze the prices of Rebellion cards, which vary greatly but almost entirely are priced above the unbinding floor.

But there is one more point we need to compare to be sure if Reward Cards can indeed be compared with Rebellion Cards, which is the availability factor. These are the values of printed and circulating cards from the Rebellion edition:

Splintercards Rebellion Cards.

We have an average of 100,000 printed units of each card and an average of 9,000 in circulation. Now we must compare with the statistics of Soulbound Reward Cards and finally make our final decision on whether these values are worth it or not.

Splintercards Soulbound Rewards Cards.

Yes... We have on average 139 times more cards in circulation when comparing both collections. A card that costs $60.00 and has 9,000 units vs a card that costs $13.00 and has 1,250,000 units is a very significant difference. Analyzing these numbers, it's hard to believe that anyone will trade these cards for such exorbitant values, and most likely, the majority of the cards will remain Soulbound after the 180-day period.

Even if we make a comparison with the Chaos Legion edition, the numbers still don't match; in fact, they seem worse. Cards from this collection have on average 6 times fewer units in circulation, and their prices are also approximately 6 times lower. Lower supply and lower value vs higher supply and higher value...

Splintercards Chaos Legion Cards.

The numbers speak for themselves, so I believe I don't even need to express my final opinion on the matter. Something seems off, and I am not yet sure if this was intentional or if there will be a possibility for the "fixed multiplier" to be revised before August 15th. I hope so.

Thank you so much to everyone who read this far, I hope you enjoyed it. If you like my content, I ask you to send your vote on the post and follow my profile so you can read future posts.

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Foi publicado hoje um dos conteúdos mais aguardados pelos jogadores de Splinterlands no último ano inteiro, que foi a explicação de como funcionará o processo de desvincular as Rewards Cards e torná-las negociáveis. Além disso a publicação também revelou as novas habilidades e mecânicas que serão introduzidas com a nova expansão de Rewards Cards, porém esse conteúdo ficará para o próximo post.

Hoje focarei apenas nos custos para desvincular cartas e analisar se faz sentido os valores que foram estipulados. Recomendo fortemente que leia a postagem oficial completa pois há muiotas informações extremamente relevantes, mas vou resumir a definição de custos para efetuar essa desvinculação.

Pode parecer complexo mas não é. Multiplique a quantidade BCX pelo Power da carta e depois multiplique novamente pelo "multiplicador fixo". Esse último dado seguirá a tabela de dias mencionada acima contando a partir do dia 15 de Agosto, isso significa que teremos apenas 180 dias para decidir quais cartas desvincular até não ser mais possível tomar esta decisão (ficando mais cara conforme o tempo passa).

Tendo esclarecido como funciona o cálculo, vamos agora analisar se os valores apresentados fazem sentido. Uma Carta Comum level máximo custará 20.000 DEC (400 BCX * 5 power * 10) para ser desvinculada, considerando o valor atual isso corresponde a $13,08. Agora vamos fazer algumas comparações para entender se isso faz sentido (lembre-se que este é apenas o custo base e quem for vendê-las deverá acrescentar algum lucro em cima disso, além do valor do DEC que está consideravelmente abaixo do PEG desejado).

DESVINCULAÇÃO - COMMON MAX LEVEL SOULBOUND

$13,08

(MESMO PREÇO PARA TODAS AS OUTRAS.)

AQUISIÇÃO - COMMON MAX LEVEL CHAOS LEGION

$6,30 $2,10

$1,50 $2,50

AQUISIÇÃO - COMMON MAX LEVEL REBELLION

$63,20 $61,74

$72,97 $18,82

Selecionei algumas cartas aleatórias das coleções Chaos Legion (Rewards e não) e da Rebellion. Comparar o custo de desvinculação das Rewards Cards com a Chaos Legion é desonesto pois nenhuma consegue chegar próximo desses valores. A comparação muda muito quando analisamos os preços das cartas Rebellion que variam bastante mas quase que em sua totalidade estão com preços acima do floor de desvinculação.

Mas ainda há mais um ponto que precisamos comparar para ter certeza se as Rewards Cards podem mesmo serem comparadas com as Rebellion Cards que é o fator disponibilidade. Esses são os valores das cartas impressas e em circulação da edição Rebellion:

Splintercards Rebellion Cards.

Temos em média 100.000 unidades impressas de cada carta e uma média de 9000 em circulação. Agora devemos realizar a comparação com as estatísticas das Soulbound Rewards Cards e enfim tomarmos nossa decisão final se esses valores valem ou não a pena.

Splintercards Soulbound Rewards Cards.

É... Temos em média 139x mais cartas em circulação quando comparamos ambas as coleções. Uma carta que custa $60,00 e possui 9000 unidades vs uma carta que custa $13,00 e possui 1.250.000 de unidades é uma diferença bem discrepante. Analisando esses números fica difícil acreditar que alguém irá negociar essas cartas por valores tão exorbitantes e muito provavelmente a maioria das cartas permanecerão Soulbound após o prazo de 180 dias.

Mesmo se fizermos uma comparação com a edição Chaos Legion os números ainda não batem, na verdade parecem piores. As cartas dessa coleção possuem em média 6x menos unidades em circulação seus preços também são aproximadamente 6x menores. Menor oferta e menor valor vs maior oferta e maior valor...

Splintercards Chaos Legion Cards.

Os números falam por si e por isso acredito que nem preciso expressar minha opinião final sobre o assunto. Algo de errado parece não estar certo e eu ainda não tenho certeza se isso foi intencional ou se haverá a possibilidade do "multiplicador fixo" ser revisto antes do dia 15 de Agosto. Eu espero que sim.

Muito obrigado a todos que leram até aqui, espero que tenham gostado. Se vocês curtirem meus conteúdos, peço que deixem o seu voto na postagem e sigam o meu perfil para poderem acompanhar as futuras postagens.

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I think many players missed the point with the pricing. It is SUPPOSED to be prohibitively expensive to unlock these cards! Splinterlands company (SMC) doesn't want people to unlock a ton of these old reward cards to compete with buying new Rebellion cards.

If the unlock price is too low, then the market would be flooded with additional reward cards that nobody really wants to buy because everyone has been earning them for the past 18 months. I have TWO COMPLETE RF sets of these cards. The only people who will drive the price of these cards are new players coming in that want to have these cards for their WILD collection. Don't forget these cards will only be in modern for as long as Chaos Legion remains in modern. I think that is less than a year for sure.

Is the 10x price justifiable for Wild only? Probably not, which is why most people won't unlock. But the truth is even for a cheap unlock cost, most people already have these cards! Sure some people might need an extra BCX of some legends or epics, but I don't think there will be a ton of demand to buy/rent singles on Day 1. I think the demand for these cards comes from new players who want access to these reward cards they could never earn, but that's about it.