I guess August will be pretty much as shite as July was, and this type of behavior reminds me a lot of how 2017 felt. Technically, we were supposed to see a price action for BTC this year similar to what we had in 2020 because it's a halving year. But that wasn’t the case.
BTC hit a new ATH before the halving even happened, which has never occurred in its entire history. When that happened, most of us here got so bullish we thought the peak was so close we might enter a new bear market by the end of 2024. Now we’re in the fifth month of correction (halving chop), and we still don’t know when it’ll be over.
If I had to guess, I’d say October (Uptober) should be the month for that, according to past price performance, but I’ve had so many failed guesses in this space it’s futile to even try. I’d rather let the market do its thing and not complicate matters further.
This time is probably "not different" once again, and we’ll have a spectacular 2025 (a year after the halving) rally that will take BTC and the broader market to new ATHs. Very few anticipated what happened in traditional markets, so it’s no surprise that very few can predict what’s next for crypto.
However, I was talking with a gym mate today who’s also into crypto. He asked if I was still holding onto my coins, I said yes, and he confessed he hadn’t capitulated during the dump either. At some point, I was thinking: "Man, we’ve been in this thing for years, and we still complicate it by refusing to see the cycles for what they are—four-year, halving-ignited bull market cycles."
The market has a way of convincing us that "this time is different," that inflation, wars, or whatever will interfere with these cycles and either rush or cancel our bull market. This often happens when you’re connected to a certain space or ideology for too long.
Being in crypto 24/7 allows doubt to creep in, leading to mistakes made out of uncertainty. But when you zoom out and look at the charts and numbers, the money supply is heading towards a new peak, the DXY is falling, the S&P hasn’t yet had its run, rate cuts are coming, and inflation will probably come down a bit but never to pre-2020 levels.
The halving creates a supply shock in an environment where different players are accumulating BTC. Morgan Stanley, for example, was so bearish about Bitcoin throughout 2023, only to announce now that they have exposure to BTC through spot ETFs worth a few hundred million dollars.
The bull market isn’t over. We don’t know if BTC will go to $200,000+ this cycle—personally, I believe it won’t—but when it comes to alts, we’re so fucking early. However, the market (and market makers) have the mission to convince us that this time is different and that it’s all over already.
Six months from now, everything will be so different, and that’s when caution is advised. When everyone turns bullish, it’ll be time to start playing defensive and gradually dump positions. The chop may continue longer than we can stay solvent, but at some point, it’ll end, and the parabolic run will begin.
We don’t know how long it’ll last, but it will be spectacular as usual. Until "prices make sense again," go pick a hobby and take your eyes off the lower time frame charts for a while. Good times are ahead.
Thanks for your attention,
Adrian