Four years ago Mike Novogratz was claiming, sometime in the summer of 2018, that BTC has bottomed at $6,000 and that it shall continue its path to $100,000 sooner than later. BTC went down to as low as $3,000 months after Novogratz came with that prediction and we have not seen a $100,000 BTC yet.
I don't even know what would push BTC that high in the next couple of years or so. Venture capitalist, Tim Draper, was quoted on twitter today for his prediction of $250,000 BTC by the end of this year. I think I heard this one before, and no I don't think it's going to happen.
It will be interesting to see BTC holding $30,000, but that doesn't mean we're going to $20k. It doesn't mean that we can't visit that area either. Times are uncertain and that's what I want to emphasize.
Just a year ago, Twitter was literally flooded by charts painting BTC's path to incredible dollar valuations, and if I remember correctly just one guy in my following list called for a top on BTC at $69,000. Now he's turned bullish for a couple of days. That doesn't mean he's right, though, it's just probable that a reversal might be on the way.
Now, I'm not saying BTC can't reach $250,000 in 2022, everything is possible and one catalyst that COULD push that into taking place would be Russia taking Bitcoin more seriously and using it as a way of escaping these idiotic sanctions that they got from the West.
The way I see it, America has caused much more death in the world than Russia has for the past couple of decades or so and no one is sanctioning them. That's a story for another post, though.
The conclusion that I've come to is that both the moon and the doom boys are wrong. The way I see it, BTC has had an unordinary bull market not respecting previous patterns(3x 2017 ATH is not your regular bull market top), thus we might experience an unordinary bear market as well.
Trying to trade this market is highly risky imo. Crypto has not yet decoupled from traditional asset classes, although it might soon, it is nevertheless benefitting from a continual mass adoption process that looks unstoppable. Picking the right coins and holding them for a couple of years or so, no matter whether the bottom is in or not could be the best strategy.
By the way, do you think BTC will touch its 2021 ATH this year?
Thanks for your attention,
Adrian
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