I thought crypto was a market open for trading 24/7, but looking at the swings it had today, it feels like nothing happens in the market when institutions are on weekend breaks. Everything is so flat, BTC is much higher than it was one year ago, and we still don't have any euphoria around Bitcoin and the crypto markets.
I don't know about you, but I don't believe in a bull market ending without euphoria kicking in and turning even the most bearish trader or investor into a convinced bull. So far, I haven't seen that. All I see is the markets (S&P included) climbing the wall of worry.
Renowned analysts like Alessio Rastani called the end of the bull market for traditional markets a few good months ago, only to see NASDAQ and Dow Jones indices reaching new ATHs a couple of weeks ago, and Bitcoin along with the altcoins market also showing signs of resilience.
I often remind myself of the famous Wall Street cheat sheet, which accurately represents the psychology of the markets over a full cycle. As the chart shows, the markets usually start climbing again after cooling off for a good period when even the most convinced bulls lean towards becoming bearish and start thinking about their investments from the doom and gloom point of view.
I've seen that in myself about a year ago when BTC was barely holding $15K, and the floor looked so thin and easily breakable. BTC is now almost three times that level, and we still don't have euphoria in the market. On the one hand, we have plenty of rumors surfacing regarding the potential approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF this month, but on the other, the majority is "cautiously bullish" if not entirely bearish.
The Bitcoin spot ETF for Bitcoin and the crypto landscape as a whole translates to Wall Street accepting Bitcoin as a new asset class and a trustworthy investing arena, and the masses are still fearful. Can you believe that?
I know that what I am about to say may not make much sense, but I will say it anyway: the way I see it, the crypto market is now in its disbelief phase two stage on the Wall Street cheat sheet. When BTC was dancing around $25K, many didn't believe in the rally and called it a bear market rally.
Now that BTC has shown strength for a bit over a year, going higher and higher in anticipation of the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs, we are trapped in the disbelief phase two where the masses are fearful that once the news goes out, BTC will instantly pump just to severely dump afterward and kill the bull market.
That's not going to happen. Well, we might see a "sell the news" sell-off after the typical announcement pump, but that will only drag BTC's price back for a bit so that institutions can load up more of it. Bitcoin is not and will not be a failed asset anytime soon; if there were no serious demand for it, there would be no damn spot ETFs requests waiting for approvals. That simple.
Now, what I've also seen in the market at the moment, from a sentiment's perspective is the disbelief the majority of altcoin holders are having. They look at their portfolios and their favorite coins, and the majority are still 90% down from their ATHs, HIVE included, and they are in disbelief regarding the altcoins.
Nothing new to me. I had 588,000 DOGE that were worth $1,200 at the end of 2019 and something like 10,000 ADA that were valued at roughly $300 at about the same time, and I was in disbelief too "at that time" with these holdings. But if you look at the charts of both of them, you will realize that I was basically in disbelief with no particular reason.
I dumped both of these positions because I no longer believed in them, thanks to paying too much attention to what some so-called crypto gurus were saying on the internet and ended up messing up an unbelievable bull market. THEY WILL ALL PUMP; EVERY SHITCOIN IN THIS MARKET WILL HAVE ITS TURN, MARK MY WORDS.
Some will pump sooner, others a bit later, but anything you might be holding at the moment will be at least 10X its value. I am 100% sure of that. I've been in crypto for well over six years, and it's the same shit every cycle. The news and officials are always different so that they can scare investors away from buying near the bottom and pull them in during phases.
Wars, recessions, covid, presidential elections, lawsuits, you name it. Every cycle has its vampires, and every time after a proper bear market, we have a full-blown bull market. This time won't be different, trust me. Hence, next time you look at your portfolio and get frustrated that it is not performing, have a look at ADA's chart back in 2018-2020, and see how much time it spent in the $0.03 - $0.05 price range before it broke out to the upside.
And once it did that, it managed to reach a price level of 100 times higher than its absolute bottom. Many altcoins will do the same, but we are not there yet. Maybe by the end of 2024, the beginning of 2025, we will be there. Just have patience and stick to your plan; don't fall for the second disbelief phase we are currently in so that you can reap the rewards of the euphoria phase.
This is my take on the current market situation regarding crypto and how I'm dealing with external factors that might take me off track. I hope everyone is having a fantastic weekend and see you in the next post.
Thanks for your attention,
Adrian