Dogecoin would have been my best and biggest bet in crypto since 2017 if I’d played it right, but I didn’t. About three years ago, I once again proved to myself that I change course too often and too easily. I think I’ve made some good adjustments for this cycle though.
As far as I remember, the joke coin did over 400X from its 2018 low to its 2021 high. Elon and WallStreetBets played a huge role in that surge. Hype made it one of the top performers, and when you see that, you have to wonder: do fundamentals even matter in this space?
After seven fucking years in the game, I'd say in 99% of cases, fundamentals don’t matter. If they did, Hive would be a top 30 crypto project by now—but it’s not.
Look at all these AI coins—over 90% of projects with tokens listed on exchanges aren’t doing anything to back their price growth. They grew off NVDA hype, which is tied to AI. I read on Twitter the other day that NVDA already sold out some chip highly used for AI, a year in advance. Coins like Ocean, FET, and AGIX—just hype. There are newer coins like SUI and Raydium with some utility and good performance, but the rest? Worthless.
Same goes for meme coins. Meme coins are for lazy people, gamblers, and degenerates. And although I don’t necessarily like saying this, memes will probably take up 25% of the total market cap by the end of this cycle. Just look at the trending coins on CoinGecko every day—90% of them are memes. Why? Because 90% of people on this planet are lazy and have a gambler’s mentality. Most of us dream of getting rich overnight, and when our portfolios are in a good spot, we somehow refuse to sell.
That’s why meme coins hit insane valuations. Just like the DOGE millionaire story, investors refuse to sell. They get attached to the cartoon-character coin they bought and hold on for dear life, even when they have insane profits in hand.
I made the same mistake with LEO in 2021. I held from $0.05 all the way to $1, even bought more at $0.60 after it peaked. I was obsessed with it, only to see it crash back to $0.03 or so. The same thing will happen to meme holders. Once the bull market reaches its euphoria phase, tons of money will flood into memes.
Retail investors won’t be buying BTC or SOL anymore because they won’t be the hot topics on social media. When mainstream media starts talking about crypto again, they’ll showcase examples of investors who turned $100 into a fortune with some ridiculous coin like "MOO DENG." It won’t matter what the coin is—people will just chase the next meme.
In the early stages of this bull cycle, I didn’t believe memes still had any juice left, but I was dead wrong. I wouldn’t advise anyone to go all-in on memes, but having a few "just in case" isn’t a bad idea.
If you happen to hit the jackpot with a meme coin, or any crypto for that matter, don’t fall for that super cycle nonsense. Take your profits and buy something nice with that money. Back in 2022, when I got that $7,000 UMA airdrop (thanks to @inallitlewhile), I initially wanted to cash out all of it. But instead, I only took out half and reinvested the rest. Bad move... the bear market and LUNA wrecked it all.
This time, when the market gets euphoric, I’m exiting positions gradually. I don’t believe in any super cycle as long as most crypto investors are driven by fear and greed, and there’s no real utility behind many of these projects.
No one knows exactly when the peak will hit, but we’ll definitely have one. And when it comes, I’m ready to cash out.
Thanks for your attention,
Adrian
