Crypto Twitter has been quiet lately, with little action happening for BTC. In fact, since March when it reached its ATH, the price has remained range-bound within a falling wedge pattern. Since falling wedges are bullish patterns, the breakout should be to the upside.
We're in a halving year, which means that the best is yet to come, as most gains typically occur one to 1.5 years after the halving. This seasonality has occurred with remarkable consistency every cycle, and this one won't likely be an exception.
However, we tend to complicate things more than necessary. When ETFs were approved in late 2023-early 2024 and saw significant inflows, there were countless early-cycle predictions based on the FOMO they would trigger.
While it's true that the ETFs did record considerable net inflows for a while, appetite for them eventually diminished, and before long, we started seeing outflows. Institutional investors' psychology is not unlike basic human psychology; bubbles do deflate over time.
The rally has been somewhat hurried into the bull market. We've never seen a new ATH for BTC prior to its halving, but this current ranging period has managed to reduce the acceleration of the cycle from around 240 days at the March ATH to approximately 80 days, according to RektCapital on Twitter.
This indicates that we're gradually repositioning ourselves into the usual halving-ignited bull market patterns. If history repeats itself, BTC should peak somewhere around September 2025; it may happen earlier or later than that month, but 2025 will be the year for Bitcoin, nonetheless.
There are over 10,000 coins aside from BTC listed on various exchanges, and some wonder where all the money will come from to push the total market cap to $5 trillion and beyond. First, the total market cap is a representation of what investors would pay for all the coins out there; it's not set in stone.
Secondly, similar questions were asked in 2020 during the global lockdown: who will push the market to new highs? Two factors lead markets: fear and greed. Once we enter extreme greed, FOMO kicks in, and I wouldn't underestimate its power. Traditional markets are showing strength despite recession calls, wars, and other challenges.
It won't take long before risk-on assets follow traditional ones. No one knows how high BTC will reach as an ATH; we can only assume that anything above $100,000 is a gift. Altcoins will perform well too. Some are already showing strength despite BTC still struggling under $60,000.
Once BTC breaks through $74,000 and enters price discovery, expect it to rally, and its dominance to fall. This pattern repeats every cycle: when BTC enters price discovery, altcoins gain traction, and smart investors become fearful, selling positions because they know parabolic rallies don't last forever.
Unfortunately, the majority falls for hype surrounding shitcoins that promise 1000x-10,000x returns, carrying heavy bags into the following bear market. I won't make the same mistake as in previous bull markets; I'll be cautious once mania kicks in again and avoid burning myself like I did in 2021.
Thanks for your attention,
Adrian