When to Hold and When to Fold

in #hive-1679222 years ago

One year ago, the sun and warm weather were much more generous to us than they are today. By this time last year, I had already hosted a few barbecues outdoors, while nowadays, we're getting rain almost on a daily basis. Rain didn't catch me much last year, but I caught the rain (falling knives).

A year ago today, UST/LUNA crashed, and $40 billion in value disappeared from the total market capitalization in mere minutes. BTC went from 28k to 19k, and I bet it would have fallen even further if exchanges had not halted trading. This event teaches us a few lessons.

I wasn't into LUNA, and I didn't hold any UST when the crash began. But I thought the crash would make for a good trading opportunity, so I threw about $1000 into LUNA at $82. Then it fell to $20, and I threw another grand at it. The $20 floor was as thick as the spring morning drizzle, and in a blink of an eye, LUNA fell as low as $2.

I caught another falling knife and bought more, and I ended up buying the LUNA crash all the way down to a few cents per coin. I wasted about $3,500 in one day with LUNA, and it took me about two days to recover mentally from the loss. I couldn't believe I lost that much money.

Neither did I know that the bull market was already over for about six months or so. Hence, I deployed more capital, not on LUNA, but on EGLD, a crypto that I somehow became emotionally attached to. I bought my first EGLD coins between the $80 to $84 range, already seeing it going back to $500 in a couple of weeks.

market-outlook-28-12.jpg

Unfortunately, the market went down, and I bought even more, and now I'm carrying underwater bags. But I'm not that disappointed about that. I believe that in 2025, we will see new ATHs in crypto, and I'm confident that my investment will be fruitful.

So, what are the lessons that I learned from the LUNA crash?

Well, when you see a shitcoin burning, you don't bring water for the rescue, you just put more fuel on it. Had I opened short positions on LUNA when it crashed instead of catching those falling knives, I would have probably made so much money with that event that I'd have my own damn house right now.

Next, I want to mention falling knives. Even if you consider that the project is legit and has a good chance of recovery, you don't touch it until "there's proof" the dump is over. This might take days or even weeks. Rushing in and FOMOing is a bad way of buying less with more.

Last but not least, what this whole situation taught me was the fact that you don't always have to be in the market. You don't need to hold some coin or another unless you plan on doing so for many years and don't care what's going to happen in the next one or two years.

Sometimes you just need to sit on USDT or any other stablecoin and watch the market. Study the psychology of the masses and wait for the best opportunities. That's an important lesson that I learned thanks to LUNA and am willing to apply during the next bear market. Had I stayed on cash during 2022, I'd be in a much better position right now.

You have to learn one way or another, and probably the most valuable lessons are learned by going through painful events like the one I experienced with LUNA. What do you think?

Thanks for your attention,
Adrian

Posted Using LeoFinance Alpha

Sort:  

!BEER

Cheers!

I was also caught with LUNA. I thought that since it was in the top 10 with high volume, it should be safe, but this is how we learn. Thanks for sharing your experience and lessons.

I've spent thousands of dollars on Splinterlands that I didn't get back. Now, I'm bag holding, renting and trying to make out profit. The only positive is that most of the money cane from Splinterlands in the first place.

If I knew things were going to shit, I would have liquidated and would be sitting on 12K HBD in savings, instead of scrapping for change, as I'm doing now. We live and we learn.

I totally get you. I'm scrapping for change as well but I'm the only one guilty for this mess.

Just don't forget to sell in 2025. It's always the same.

images (2).jpeg
Source

What!!!!!.
Am so sorry you lost such amount. You see, at first when this shit coins comes into the market, they seems to be very legit, that is why so many people lacks the patience of waiting.

They assume that the coin would do well, then they invest heavily. Regarding this post, i just remember that a coin is currently on the market, showing some legit signs to investors. I am talking about pepe coin. With lots of users investing as much as they can. Well, few months will tell how legit the meme coin is.

Great post by the way.

Thanks for your attention. I've done no research before doing that trade.

I'm 100% guilty for what happened.

Not a rumor, but an inside info: EGLD will develop a global insurance feature, a side bizz of one of their devs. I haven't invested in this token yet, but I have friends who developed the whole deal ;) and which are still in the game.

I bought it just because it's Romanian. Knew about it since it first got listed on a Romanian exchange but thought it was a scam. After the dex hack the team convinced me it's worth investing.

I'm so sorry you lost that huge amount. I heard how bad Luna became and even some people committed suicide due to the fact that they lost all their life savings through it. I'm not someone that's into shitcoins, infact I hated it. Unfortunately for me, I gave into my FOMO when Pepe started trending and I invested a few hundreds of dollars into it. I made some profits the next day and instead of taking out my money, I thought it will rise more. Sadly, I lost all the profit I made and a little of my original capital. I've learnt my lesson of taking out my money as soon as I make some profit. Shitcoins fluctuate and its not a place you let your investments stay in for long.

Thank you for such an amazing and detailed post. You just got a follower🥰🥰🥰.

Sas to read about your loss. Be careful next time.