Bitcoin is Rising: Surpassing $80,000, Is the Target $100,000?
Hello everyone. Bitcoin has surpassed $80,000 and is currently trading at $83,000. The rise in Bitcoin is continuing rapidly. Will this upward trend continue? What are our current expectations? What is the target price?
Of course, it's not just Bitcoin other altcoins are also experiencing an overall rise. This week Bitcoin increased and Ethereum saw a 30% increase. Some altcoins experienced gains as high as 180%. Overall there was an increase between 120% and 30% and many coins and tokens in the market have risen.
We were already expecting such an increase for a while. The data has been very positive, the trend had turned upwards and with the transition to the Trump administration, we entered a new phase. Currently we are targeting the price range of $90,000–$100,000. When these levels are reached of course, we may see some profit-taking. So, why are we targeting the $90,000–$100,000 range and not $110,000 or $70,000? The answer lies in Fibonacci levels. Typically when price movements approach ATH levels, we draw target prices based on Fibonacci levels derived from past prices. However, there may not be resistance at these levels because the price is reaching them for the first time and the $90,000 level has not been previously reached, so we cannot be sure whether this will be a resistance point.
After the trend brea, as the price approaches ATH levels, fibonacci is the most commonly used tool. These levels typically experience price corrections. Here, we can see a flag formation and by applying Fibonacci retracement to the last impulsive move of this flag formation, we track the 1.618 level (the golden ratio) as the target price. According to Fibonacci, this level points to the $95,000 mark. Once this level is broken, it is expected that the price will rise up to 1.618 times that value. Therefore, we can track the $95,000 level as the target price.
These numbers are not randomly chosen. they are based on serious mathematical calculations and formulas. And there is a large impulsive move here, but a much bigger secondary impulsive move coming from the bottom is also being observed. By analyzing this movement with the Fibonacci tool we can determine a second price level, which points to $104,000. So, the target price for the main large impulsive movement is $104,000, while the target for the smaller upward wave is $95,000. In this case, we are following the $95,000–$104,000 range, drawing a resistance channel. This means our target price range will be between $95,000 and $104,000. Until these levels are reached, I do not expect a major correction, there may be minor pullbacks or retracements, but a large-scale correction is definitely not expected. A 3% or 5% pullback may occur, of course.
This is because a correction already occurred at the $68,000 level and currently, interest rate cuts continue, with a shift toward monetary expansion. In China, there is a significant liquidity increase and similarly, the Fed is continuing to print money. So, while liquidity is increasing and there is a shift toward monetary expansion, with the return of Trump, a president favored by financial markets, we can expect new higher peaks to continue in the global markets. In this context, we are tracking the $95,000–$105,000 range. After reaching these levels, signals may be given about whether the rise will continue.
We had already purchased at the $60,000 breakout level and had also bought at earlier prices. After the trend break, new buying opportunities appeared and a pullback at $68,000 provided an opportunity to add more.
Now, let's take a look at other current data. The way to determine whether the rise is healthy is to definitely check the spot market. We can see that the market is rising well and that this increase is supported by spot purchases. This indicates that the rise is healthy and the outlook is positive. Also, looking at CoinBase data, CoinBase's continued purchases are a positive factor.
Let’s take a look at whale activity. Currently, whale activity is around 21. This is really a very good level. Even being above 10 is positive, but the fact that it is at the 20-21 level is really great. Whale activity, which was previously in the negative zone, has now turned positive. After whale activity turned positive, a 30% profit potential occurred in Bitcoin. Currently, whale activity at the 20 level is very positive.
When we look at liquidations, we see that there is a crowd opening short positions. We have exited a 7-8 month declining trend, during which investors were easily making money by opening short positions. When the trend changes, especially with the reversal of a downtrend into an uptrend, investors' habits don't change immediately. Investors may still be inclined to open short positions based on past habits. However, one should never trade against the trend. Currently, we are in an uptrend and I believe investors should definitely not open short positions unless we reach significant resistance levels. Purchases should be made at support levels and profit-taking should occur at resistance levels. In an uptrend, resistances are more easily broken. In a bear market, however, it cannot be said that support levels are very strong because in a downtrend, supports can be easily broken.
In this situation, I believe those continuing to open short positions are making a mistake. These types of investors may potentially face liquidation. However, currently, there are no data suggesting a major risk. Funding rates have risen slightly recently, but they are still at normal levels. If funding rates move into the yellow or red zone, it would indicate that the market is becoming overheated and that too many long positions have been opened. At that point, the market might be inclined to make a correction. Right now, funding rates have not reached a dangerous level. We are just seeing a slight increase above the average. This does not pose a major risk at this moment.
In the current scenario, I see the possibility of the price rising to the $95,000–$105,000 range as more likely. Until these levels are reached, I do not expect a major correction. Once this range is reached, the risk of a correction can be considered, especially with rising funding rates.
As for Ethereum, I mentioned that the downtrend has been broken and a fast rise has begun. Ethereum's increase shows the weakening of dominance and a faster influx of money into altcoins.
Posted Using InLeo Alpha