Flummoxed Number Bias

in #hive-1679227 hours ago

Hi fellow Hiveians,

Today I wanted to talk about number biases and how I'm modifying one of mine to make it better!

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Flummoxed Number Bias

I, like many other people - in fact most people, am victim to the number bias thing.

Number bias for me happens daily, and it's amusing because it's a lot of nonsense stuff like preferring the volume on the radio being a 5 or 10 number instead of like a 3 or 7. Random things like that lol but it also applies in the crypto realm as well and I need to do a better job of preventing that, in a good way!

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Recently I had set a sell order for some value of Bitcoin and I was pretty sure that the order was going to get filled. I was looking a few times of day and checking the Bitcoin charts but the damn number wasn't hitting the specific target I had set. I think I set it to 80,000 exactly. This is where the weird number bias situation comes in. I could have set it to a whole range of numbers but I set it to 80,000 and it was hovering around there but staying at like 80,734 or something of the sort, never really getting down to 80k. This is a total and funny number bias situation! Many people were likely setting their buy orders at that 80k threshold so that it would hold but there were plenty of others who didn't do such a thing and took advantage of it.

This is one of the things that I want to change and get out of; I need to remember that the next programmatic buy or sell orders that I'm going to be setting are going to be very strange numbers but the ones that I want to hit. For example, I changed my buy order from 80,000 to something random like 80,186 so that it is still likely to hit that number, but it has a much better chance than getting behind all of the people who set buy orders for 80,000 and then all of the programmatic buys hit at once and mine is likely towards the end of the line and never gets filled.

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This is a pretty simple but interesting thing to do, because we have so many subconscious biases that we have on many levels. I find this type of thing fascinating because I have no idea why I like to set the volume on the radio to 5 or 10 or 15 or 20 instead of 11 or 16 but I still do it all the time. I could certainly change that behavior, but what's the point if it's not causing any harm? lol.

With Bitcoin, this type of subconscious behavior is a little different in that it is able to adjust things for better, or for worse certainly, for me and others who are buying and selling in the markets. That is most likely why that many people in the crypto and stock realm set up bots to do all the work for them, buying and selling sometimes hundreds of times in a second to move the needle on a price in a particular direction without any human input. This is helpful in some cases, but not for the average person. That is an insane amount of transactions to have to log and sift through on a tax return so there is no way that I will be doing that type of shit lol. Still though, I think that it's a good step in the right direction to at least acknowledge the weird number bias preference for something as silly as the price of Bitcoin and work to modify that so that I get better access to hitting the programmatic buys.

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What about you, do you have any weird biases in your life? Are you trying to get past them or are you just saying screw it, who cares?

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-CmplXty. Real human written content, never AI. All pictures are mine unless otherwise stated

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