It was another very interesting week while trying to beat the betting market with an overall result which was favorable as I managed to make it into the 2nd profitable week in 2025. I did make an overall good +0.657 units profit on the 5.294 units that I staked. Many of the bets continue to feel like coinflips with a small edge which finally feel to have started dropping on the right side more than often.
However, I did get caught up with 1 bigger bet where the odds made no sense as they continued to go up. On the one side it's rare to see something where you believe to have a nice edge but on the other side when you see something acting strange you more or less know what the outcome will be. It was the Under in the Standard match who previously so far managed to score just 3 goals in away matches this season while Stvv has the coach with the most defensive reputation. Even at 1.8 odds for the Under 2.5 line I felt it was worth the risk of a small-medium betbut this went up to 1.97+ on the Under 2.75 line so I added to both the 1H under and FT under up to 0.9 units. The fact that I was already in good profit on the week from Saturday certainly helped with this but I should have kept the stake lower as I even wrote that...
The odds kind of point toward a home win and Standard has to go forward leaving space which will result in more goals. That is the scenario that I kind of fear.
I still went with the fundamental logic of the actual match what I expected also with the idea that unless there were 2 early goal it would be possible to lower my exposure. Off course after 2 minutes the 1-0 already came somehow for Stvv which was the wort case scenario. After that it remained a match that didn't have much to to and very late in the 2nd half I was going to take a small loss on the 1H under bet wanting to bet 1H Over 1.5 @ 5.0 with 5+ minutes left to go but right before the 1-1 somehow came. In the end it became 1-2 and stayed there and I did manage to make up some of the loss by getting into the Stvv corners which was relatively easy.
So what this once again points out is how difficult betting has become and you need to go fully counter-intuitive at times like this. I still believe the market can be beaten vor 2-3% at quite some volume purely on info and closely following everything which is what I'm aiming for.
Pre-Game Preview Bets Season 2024-2025
Again 2 Highlighted pre-game bets of which 1 won and 1 lost which made me lose a small bit and I'm still down overall on these this season. However when zooming out, everything still looks good and normal.
Previous 4 Seasons Result
Aside from sharing my previews and bets on my Blog, I also cover all matches live in our SBC Discord Channel sharing all the bets I take. The main purpose is to stay sharp and keep myself accountable.
Season 2024-2025 Personal Betting Chart
The good thing is the the current overall uptrend seems to see a continuation slowly but surely working my way up to getting back in the green. This without overly taking risk even though I took a bit too big of a stake on the Standard match. So I will keep grinding things out in the same way and not change anything for now. I did see a good lesson confirmed this week that if something makes no sense and feels too good it usually isn't and the market simply one way or another knows more or just has better data to go on.
Regular Season Results 2024-2025
Week 22 Results 44 Bets | 27W-17L-02P | Staked 05.294u | +0.657u Profit
Week 21 Results 56 Bets | 26W-27L-03P | Staked 06.321u | +0.499u Profit
Week 20 Results 25 Bets | 10W-14L-01P | Staked 02.263u | +0.349u Profit
Week 19 Results 50 Bets | 21W-21L-08P | Staked 04.752u | -0.138u Loss
Week 18 Results 46 Bets | 21W-24L-01P | Staked 04.646u | -0.238u Loss
Week 17 Results 49 Bets | 27W-16L-06P | Staked 05.230u | +1.264u Profit
Week 16 Results 21 Bets | 06W-11L-04P | Staked 02.753u | -0.936u Loss
Week 15 Results 45 Bets | 13W-29L-04P | Staked 04.665u | -0.149u Loss
Week 14 Results 46 Bets | 13W-29L-04P | Staked 04.962u | -1.2591u Loss
Week 13 Results 27 Bets | 08W-15L-04P | Staked 03.074u | -1.101u Loss
Week 12 Results 63 Bets | 39W-16L-08P | Staked 04.874u | +1.737u Profit
Week 11 Results 37 Bets | 14W-17L-06P | Staked 03.871u | -0.347u Loss
Week 10 Results 62 Bets | 19W-39L-04P | Staked 07.324u | -1.849u Loss
Week 09 Results 62 Bets | 30W-25L-07P | Staked 06.600u | +0.216u Profit
Week 08 Results 26 Bets | 16W-07L-03P | Staked 03.921u | +0.963u Profit
Week 07 Results 50 Bets | 21W-17L-12P | Staked 05.544u | +0.403u Profit
Week 06 Results 28 Bets | 14W-11L-03P | Staked 03.824u | +0.825u Profit
Week 05 Results 38 Bets | 14W-19L-05P | Staked 05.130u | -0.522u Loss
Week 04 Results 51 Bets | 18W-27L-06P | Staked 05.308u | -0.512u Loss
Week 03 Results 44 Bets | 13W-28L-04P | Staked 06.999u | -1.305u Loss
Week 02 Results 48 Bets | 22W-25L-01P | Staked 06.270u | -0.429u Loss
Week 01 Results 34 Bets | 11W-14L-09P | Staked 04.245u | +0.145u Profit
Week 00 Results 10 Bets | 05W-04L-01P | Staked 00.860u | -0.046u Loss
Total Season 2024-2025 Results
964 Bets | 415W-442L-107P | 108.729u Staked | -1.677u Loss | -1.54% ROI
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