PolyCUB

We're over two weeks into the launch of PolyCUB and the results have been pretty amazing so far. The block rewards have come down from five in the first week to three this week, but that's still a lot of new PolyCUB coming into the market every day. Fortunately, the LeoFinance team has created a platform where that is actually a good thing rather than a negative.

The idea is to get as much of the PolyCUB distributed as possible, as soon as possible, in order to attract as much TVL as possible early in the game. The more money that flows into the system, the more value the Protocol owned Liquidity (PoL) pulls in and the more it will then be able to sustain the price and growth of the platform overall.

While this is happening, the ratio of PolyCUB to xPolyCUB continues to climb meaning that it is taking more and more PolyCUB to buy one xPolyCUB. Right now that ratio has ascended above 15 and, while it has slowed down, it continues to climb at a very steady pace. It won't be long until it will take 20 PolyCUB to get 1 xPolyCUB. Better yet, each xPolyCUB owned will be worth 20 PolyCUB. So if you managed to scrape together enough to get 100 xPolyCUB over the first two and a half weeks, you're actually sitting on over 1500 PolyCUB right now on your way to over 2000 and growing.

Like I said, pretty amazing, especially if you were able to get that xPolyCUB early while the ratio was still in the low to mid single digits. In the meantime, there are more pieces being added to the puzzle as we speak that will continue to incentivize long-term hodling of xPolyCUB, but that's a topic for another post.

CUB

In the meantime, where does all of this leave CUB? Welp, in my opinion, right smack dab in the middle of everything. CUB has become the proverbial red-headed stepchild in this equation. When PolyCUB first launched, many people sold their CUB in order to put it into the new PolyCUB. While I get the reasons, they were also selling CUB for 40 cents or less and buying PolyCUB well over $1.00, in many cases $3-$5.

It hasn't been a bad move, and depending on timing, it could have been a very good move, but I don't think it's been a complete no-brainer. Part of the reason is that selling your CUB loses you your "free" airdropped PolyCUB, all of which has no penalty for staking/selling. So it's basically like getting double what you're getting in the farms on PolyCUB. It also costs you potential future airdrops in upcoming launches when CUB expands again into other chains like Thor, Avalanche, Terra, Fantom, etc. There is obviously time to buy it back but for how long?

Math--PolyCUB vs CUB

Let's try a little math. Say you had 10,000 CUB when PolyCUB launched. That entitled you to 850 PolyCUB in the airdrop, divided by 60 days equals 14/day. On day 1, you get the first airdrop of 14 then sell all of your CUB for 40 cents ($4000). You then turn around and buy PolyCUB on the market for $4 and get 1000 PolyCUB. You take that and put it in the xPolyCUB Kingdom at a 2 ratio so you end up with 507 xPolyCUB counting your airdrop. Right now that is worth roughly 507 x 15 x $0.75 = $5703.75

Let's compare that to if you had done nothing but collect your airdrops and stake those into xPolyCUB. By my math you'd have roughly 40 PolyCUB since while you were getting 14/day, the ratio continued to climb every day so the xPolyCUB you could get would go down. CUB is paying 60%+ APY so your CUB would have grown from 10,000 to roughly 10,210 over the last 16 days so...40 x 15 x $0.75 = $450 in PolyCUB and 10,210 x $0.25 = @$2550 so roughly $3000. This, of course, factors in the price moves which, for obvious reasons, matter, but had CUB stayed at 40 cents, then you'd be at around $5000 right now versus the $5700 your PolyCUB is worth. PLUS, you're still sitting on all of that CUB for future airdrops.

Again, if you were lucky enough or quick enough or skilled enough to make these maneuvers in the frenetic first few minutes after launch, you definitely are coming out ahead, some farther ahead than others. But if you're like me, and aren't incredibly comfortable with trying to do anything in crypto fast, then I'm perfectly happy with what my CUB holdings are providing me.

Namely, I'm building a small stack in xPolyCUB (for free), I'm getting 60% on a platform I know and trust, AND I'm continuing to set myself up for very nice airdrops in all future platforms. PLUS, as @edicted alluded to in one of his recent posts, if and when PolyCUB proves itself to be everything the Leo team thinks it can be, then chances are they will port some of those mechanics into the CUB platform as well which will give it even more value down the road.

Fortune favors the bold so if you made some big moves on PolyCUB, you're being rewarded. But discretion is also the better part of valor so if you're more interested in growing and protecting what you've got while still being able to participate in the new platforms, then you're not doing too badly either.

Future platforms

Here's another interesting way to look at CUB. Let's assume the next platform launch is ThorCUB. If PolyCUB continues to thrive, what do you think will happen on that launch? It's going to be insane. The price will probably go even higher in the early stages as people clamor to get in while the ratio is low. Consider, if you buy 1000 ThorCUB at $5 and stake it as xThorCUB when the ratio is 2, you'll get 500 xThorCUB. If the price drops to $2 a couple days later but the ratio climbs to 5, you'll need to buy 2500 ThorCUB to convert to the same 500 xThorCUB. But what if the price on launch goes to $7, $8, even $10? Which it could if by that time xPolyCUB has shown that it is indeed the "Bitcoin of Defi". Now you're looking at having to spend who knows how much to get in early and take advantage of the low ratio. You then run the risk of overpaying in the short-term if the price comes crashing back down. Or, if you wait for the price to correct before buying and it only drops to $3 before starting to climb again, you may be buying there with the ratio already up to 4 or 5 from all the stakers paying the fees to convert.

Let's do math again. Using $10,000 say you jump in early and get 1500 ThorCUB at $6.67. At a 2 ratio that nets you 750 xThorCUB. Or let's say you wait and the price drops to $3 but the ratio goes to 5. Now your $10k buys 3333 ThorCUB divided by the 5 ratio nets you 667 xThorCUB.

Now, instead of trying to navigate the crazy waters of the launch, what if you buy 40,000 CUB for that same $10,000 at $0.25? At the same 8.5% airdrop we're getting on PolyCUB, that would mean you'd get 3400 divided by 60 days equals 56/day. At the same ratio of 2 you're getting 28 xThorCUB on day 1, probably another 20 on day 2, say 14 on day 3, maybe 10 on day 4 and then we'll say an average of 5/day for the next two weeks. By my math, that basically gets you 140-150 XThorCUB again, for free, over the first 2.5 weeks and you don't have to take any of the crazy risks with trying to figure out the best time to buy price-wise vs ratio-wise.

In the meantime, your CUB is still earning you 60% and you are still growing your stack even bigger for the next launch.

Strategy: past and future

In a nutshell, here's what I did, and what I'm probably going to do going forward. Prior to launch, I followed the instructions and set up my wallet(s) for the new contracts. I then got into the pLEO/MATIC farm so I could continue to keep my LEO exposure and also farm the high emissions on the new platform. I converted my airdrops to xPolyCUB and paid the penalties to do the same with my farming yields. And finally, when the price dipped down to around 70 cents the first time, I bought a chunk of PolyCUB and converted it to xPolyCUB. I think the ratio was 5ish, give or take, at the time. I continue to convert my airdrop to xPolyCUB but am almost to the point where I will just be stacking my farming yields to wait for the 90 days. At that point, I'll either put it into the xPolyCUB Kingdom as well, or possibly use it to fund any purchases I want to make on the next platform. OR, I may just use it to buy more CUB enabling a bigger airdrop on the next one and making 60% while I wait.

For me, while I might be missing out on optimizing every dollar I have, I'm also not exposing myself to the same risk. And it's not like I'm not participating. I've got a decent chunk from the airdrop plus my purchase so I am definitely getting rewarded. I kind of view it the same as timing the market. No one ever sells at the ATH or buys at the ATL. The best you can do is decide whether you're okay with the price it's currently at and make your decision. That's why dollar-cost-averaging is usually the best strategy for buying and selling positions. Buy/sell some, wait, and then buy/sell another piece and wait again. The market will do what it does and hopefully you were right. But if you weren't, at least you have the opportunity to take advantage of it by having more bullets in the arsenal.

That's what I'm doing by owning CUB. I'm able to participate in a meaningful way but I'm also able to be patient and not make hasty decisions because I know I'm already in with "free money". Of course, if PolyCUB ends up mooning and goes to $10 or something, then I'll wish I had more. But, like I said, it's not like I'm not participating. I will definitely be profiting if and when that happens. Just not as much as if I'd gone "all in". That said, if CUB goes to $1 that's a 4x which would mean PolyCUB would really need to moon to match it. It goes both ways.

So, CUB or PolyCUB? For me, it's both.

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This is obviously not financial advice. You do you and do your own research. These are just my thoughts on using the two platforms.

Thanks for reading!

Posted Using LeoFinance ^Beta