CPI 8.2%

in #hive-1679222 years ago

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Woke up this morning and the market had chosen violence.

All the liquidity on Coinbase was just gone. Price was sloshing back and forth like crazy, something that we normally see during 30%-50% price swings (in both directions). Volatility is volatile.

The crazy thing about all of this is that it's very clear that Bitcoin is decoupling from the stock market. This pseudo dump only reinforces that concept. Bears dumped so so so much Bitcoin on this news, and we are basically down 3% and still firmly inside the descending triangle... pretty weird.

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Even with this bad news, I'm not very convinced we will get an extension on the bear market (price of $17500 and below). And even if we do, my bottom prediction is around $16k. Whatever happens, it feels like the time to be bearish has long since past. The last opportunity to make real gains was selling at $30k back in June.

That being said I do have bills to pay, and I may have to sell the bottom to do it. Very sad. I pulled enough out today to make it a couple months, but at this stage of the game I have to wonder if it would be smarter to budget for an entire year so that I have dry powder laying around.

As I write this the dump is being bought back up to the $19k level very aggressively. I'm quite convinced that bulls are using this opportunity to scoop up massive amounts of Bitcoin without increasing the price. With all the adoption popping up around the globe, it only takes one or two billionaires buying in to stop us from crashing below $17500.

Banks and tech companies are fully capitulating. They are no longer trying to create their own solutions. CBDC is a distraction that can never happen. It has no value, and everyone knows it has no value. Hundreds of thousands of people canceled their Paypal accounts instantly on the news that the terms of service changed. Imagine what happens if they try to force a CBDC, ban cash, eliminate all bank accounts... honestly it's hard to understand why people can't see that this is a non-starter. Just because some college kids got paid to build something doesn't mean it's ever going to get used, just like enterprise blockchain. Exactly the same thing. This isn't China, and even if it was we see that BTC is still active a dozen bans later.

So the point here is that how many big banks and tech executives need to enter to hold this support? One? Two? Three? The value proposition of Bitcoin and the price have never been this divergent. Everyone is still treating it like the most risk-on asset on the planet. It is not. It's a sure thing. So many people know this (most don't), but the majority are too afraid of this rampaging bear market to pull the trigger. These things can turn around quickly.

At this stage in the game we have to be prepared for a very poor-performing Q4. The federal reserve is committed to crashing this plane into the mountain no matter how many cracks in the foundation appear.

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The ice is cold!

When the economy falls into a frozen lake, hot damn it is not going to be pretty. The FED will not reverse course until the world economy is completely fucked and it's too late to fix it. What else would we expect from an institution that claimed to sell all their stocks at the tippy top of the market because of a "conflict of interest". They are all blatantly insider trading the crash that they created. Should have been more obvious I suppose. Everyone at the FED sells their stocks... maybe you should sell too. Oops.

2023: The year of the maximalist.

I made this prediction over a year ago, and I still think it might play out considering everything I'm seeing right now. Do not be surprised if BTC continues to trade sideways as it sucks up liquidity from alts and increases dominance. When we trade at rock-bottom levels this is something that tends to happen. Bitcoin is king in the bear market. Balance accordingly.

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When your lifeboat looks like this, you know you won't be riding in style... but it sure beats drowning in the ocean. Bitcoin is a lot like that. Crypto needs a helluva lot more infrastructure. It lacks any and all polish. Still early.

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Oh No, it's dying!

Look at the chart. Bears just got fleeced. 8.2% CPI is TERRIBLE news when speculating on what the FED will do next. Again, this market has proven three times now that this level has infinite support and buying power. The buy wall is invisible, but it does seem to be there. Of course I do have a habit of eating my words hours after I make a speculative post like this, so I guess we'll just have to see. Ultimately I'm just waiting for that damn triangle to come to a point. I can't believe we are still stuck inside that beast for four months now. Wild. Only a week or two to go now.

Of course the chance that we just keep trading sideways is pretty strong. Hard to imagine making any significant gains in this environment. Simply not crashing 30% from here is a gain at this point.

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Conclusion

The CPI report is disappointing, but not entirely surprising. Nothing the FED does is going to fix the situation we find ourselves in. They are insider trading the dump that they created. They will push it down until something big breaks. It won't be long now.

Now is potentially the time to rebalance a good chunk of assets into Bitcoin. We can't trust the alts in a climate like this. Anyone who survived the 2018 bear market knows quite well how BTC is king of the bear market. Now is one of the worst times to get greedy and employ overleveraged positions. Do not be that degen who increases their risk here so they can "make it all back and then some". If you want to make it all back and then some: get more Bitcoin (in a hardware wallet). Guaranteed. You can then rotate back into alts in 12 months or whatever when we are out of these woods. That's my strategy anyway... and it's one that has worked quite well and got me the majority of my Hive stack.

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hmm so bad news is good news?

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Good news is good news.

Exponential adoption.

Wasn't the entire value proposition of crypto is that the legacy economy is fucked.
Legacy economy is fucked... oh no what are we gonna do.
Once Bitcoin decouples people gonna fomo in at the wrong time like they always do.

That being said I do have bills to pay, and I may have to sell the bottom to do it. Very sad. I pulled enough out today to make it a couple months, but at this stage of the game I have to wonder if it would be smarter to budget for an entire year so that I have dry powder laying around.

Have you ever tried borrowing against your crypto to pay the bills so you don't have to sell? I've been doing this for a while and it's world changing.

If you want to make it all back and then some: get more Bitcoin (in a hardware wallet). Guaranteed.

This is one of the best things about Bitcoin for me. I used to spend so much time trying to follow the markets and figure out what to do with my money and I'm always horrible at that so now I just put it in bitcoin and I can forget about it and spend time on other things.

I used to MakerDAO it up but dropped my ETHEREUM position and have no plans on reentering.
The counterparty risk of using crypto as collateral isn't something I'm looking to do right now...
Unless Polycub delivers.

Could one say ETH is pretty much as safe of a bet as BTC?

I don't think so.

The best way is to keep investing each week, and this is what I am doing. Maybe we can expect more drops, but I keep the focus on the long-term.

Counterpoint: bear markets will last longer than ever when we never really capitulate. I'd consider the coin a cheap buy when we're 80% down from the top, at $13,800, or $14,920 accounting for inflation.

Capitulation and maximum pain only happen AFTER a big dump at the bottom and people and institutions sell at a loss, AND no one is bullish anymore.

The issue here is a supply chainled inflation.

The dollar is scarce, with rates continuing to go up, there is no play money to inflate BTC at this very moment.

A depressing post, which reflects a depressing economy and depressing crypto economy. Perhaps the tail does wag the dog, and the economy reflects what we think about it in more of a mirror reflection.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

All the liquidity on Coinbase was just gone

Pretty much what I said would happen... I didn't underestimate the support at $19K/$20K. You, however, might have underestimated the macro, which was foundational in my thesis.

You are correct in saying a more significant decoupling is on the way. I agree very much. I just don't know how long it will take. The Crypto market is yet to discover it is a leader in these times... it's still following.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

Even if the bottom is in, we will have a long sideways consolidation period. If they whole world economy is completely fucked as you say, what is going to drive the next bull market?

Too many projects in the space are in its infancy and mostly useless. Real growth comes from real world utility, we are getting there but I would say not quite yet.

The next bull run comes from all these billionaires adopting Bitcoin realizing that Bitcoin is not a risk-on asset as they previously believed, but a sure thing that consistently increases exponentially in value every halving cycle. A 4-year investment is a very short time to wait for people this patient.

The market cap of Bitcoin is a drop in the bucket right now compared compared to legacy finance.
Any big player that wants to jump in will make a huge splash, no matter how crappy the rest of the economy is doing.
When people realize that USD and fiat can collapse, Bitcoin becomes much more attractive.
Even a banking collapse could spark a bull run.
There's a reason this message was imbedded into the first block:

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Again, we are already in the bull market.
The only way we aren't is if we make a new low below $17500.
From what I'm seeing... I doubt it.

This wont 'turn around very quickly'. Thats the perma bull in you talking, he is not your friend at the moment. Cash is king in this environment which wont change anytime soon. (years) Fear is here for a long time yet, maybe im crazy but we are on the verge of a major WW conflict. Its going to get real, as in real things. IN this environment its not about how much can i make mindset, its how much of can i not lose. 2025 you need to stay solvent for, like you said you might need to sell soon regardless. There will be so many other people like you.

The economy is completely fucked.

People forget that BTC is outside of the economy.
It can only bleed so much before it decouples.
We are seeing that play out right now.
Stocks will be fucked for at least 18 months.
Probably 2 years.

Its not outside the economy though it is the economy. Its a perfect reflection of the human race, to quote max kieser the price is always perfect. Its a perfect reflection of the human psyche at any given moment. The human psyche is going to go through a period of being water boarded by the war pigs that control the present that control the past that control the future. It wont be fun IMO. As we already seen and said new environment for bitcoin and the world, one which it has not seen. Just like it going below its previous all time highs. 2025 IMO bitcoin goes up and stays up above 100k, the volatility will be a thing of the past. First im waiting for saylour to get turned upside down and his coins shaken out of his pockets. Ruthless market ruthless.

Bitcoin is robust and grizzled.
The legacy markets... eh not so much.
A real bear market will prove it.
I've been waiting for this to happen since 2017.
We will learn a lot.
I guarantee surprises.

i like presents :D

Hundreds of thousands of people canceled their Paypal accounts instantly on the news that the terms of service changed. Imagine what happens if they try to force a CBDC, ban cash, eliminate all bank accounts...

If the masses would only be that smart... Remember covid vaccinations?

At this stage in the game we have to be prepared for a very poor-performing Q4.

Bottom ;).

Do not be surprised if BTC continues to trade sideways as it sucks up liquidity from alts and increases dominance. When we trade at rock-bottom levels this is something that tends to happen. Bitcoin is king in the bear market.

I'd say we have a more mature market right now, thus we can't say that that shall apply for all altcoins.

Ultimately I'm just waiting for that damn triangle to come to a point.

Same here...