Just In Time Whiplash

edicted in #hive-167922 • 2 years ago

Is @taskmaster4450 the only one who can see it?

Inflation is not a problem.
We are about to get absolutely ravaged by deflation.
The GREATEST DEPRESSION is coming.
And it is not going to be pretty.

In the above linked post Task talks about many of the reasons why deflation is the real threat right now. Inflation is not a forward-looking indicator. If we want to know what's going to happen in the future, talking about prices going up in the last 6 months is not at all helpful.

Many people wrongfully assume that the inflation debate is a relevant one to focus on. As I and Taskmaster know... these higher prices we are seeing are completely and utterly unsustainable. There comes a point where citizens simply can't afford the higher prices. This makes inventory increase. More supply makes prices lower. Lower prices means workers get laid off and/or paid less. The economy will contract. All of these issues point to one devastating outcome: DEFLATION.

Essential vs non-Essential

Some products are essential, and some are not. Examples of essential products are food, water, shelter, power, gasoline, medical care and medication. Examples of non-essential products are new phones, clothes, computers, gasoline, alcohol, furniture, art, appliances, etc. Notice how gasoline is listed as both essential and non-essential. This is where things get tricky. Many non-essential items become essential within certain contexts, and vice-versa.

Everything is relative.

There's a big difference between using gas to go to work and using it to joyride around town. Also, there are many essential product that get wasted and overused because they are abundant and cheap. See what happens when everyone has to penny-pinch to get by. Even though food is essential that doesn't mean that citizens can afford to continue buying the same products they were a year ago after losing their job. That hardship trickles down into all other purchases that person makes. There are many many variables to consider here.

JUST IN TIME business model.

This is the main topic of discussion I wanted to bring up that many are not even factoring into the equation. Supply-lines have been hit hard by things like COVID policy and sanctions against Russia. Corporations have been scrambling for years now trying to keep up with the changing environment of the global economy. Evolution is happening in real time, and evolution is ugly and surrounded by failure/death.

Everyone was using the Just In Time business model to eek out some more profits. During the pandemic, we saw that this greedy (but efficient) model was the cause of many supply shocks to the system. It stands to reason that many businesses out there are going to try to avoid this happening again at all costs. This kind of fishtailing whiplash could be just as damaging in the opposite direction.

If businesses are all of a sudden stepping out of their comfort zone and stockpiling product that they wouldn't normally stockpile, what happens when those products don't get consumed? When combined with all the other topics being discussed, this makes deflation even worse.

Conclusion

Inflation is an irrelevant indicator that shows us what's happened in the past. The real threat to the economy has always and will always be a deflationary death-spiral. Prices going up temporarily while the supply-lines are shocked shouldn't even be considered inflation, as inflation is an irreversible expansion of the money supply, not a temporary deflation of essential/non-essential products.

Nearly everyone in the world is ignorant to these factors and variables when it comes to the global economy. Everyone would rather just complain about the price of gas going up rather than actually try to understand these issues. When the majority is ignorant, the minority can capitalize on that ignorance.

We can reasonably assume that everyone is going to complain about "inflation" being a problem. We can also assume the FED, in their infinite wisdom, will continue choking the economy with increased interest rates during perhaps the worst possible time to do so.

Now is not a good time to be bullish on anything except for the value of USD. If everyone is complaining about inflation and the value of the dollar going down... yep, that's when you bet against the market and make sure you have a balanced position going forward. The Dollar is strong and it will become even stronger with increased rate hikes. For me personally it's all about having as much BTC, HIVE, and USD as possible. It's time to consolidate into the secure communities that we actually believe in rather than going all in on some random new project. I will not be caught off balance again. Greed and desperation are punished in crypto, and I've learned that the hard way a dozen times now. Stay grizzled.

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#vyb #proofofbrain #palnet #bitcoin #hive #leofinance

2 years ago in #hive-167922 by edicted

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jfang003 2 years ago

I agree that the current price increases are not sustainable. It's kind of crazy how people say that the rates increases will continue to go up but I think that will quickly fall when people stop buying.

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acesontop 2 years ago

I will not be caught off balance again.

I keep on saying that to myself for years... I guess being more flexible and open rather than searching for patterns is a better way. Everyone was waiting that after covid we would have a good amount of time of "well being around the world", and now this fuckery... Are we living the matrix or what?

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samostically 2 years ago

True.. It's better to stick to what we believe in. No time for random experiments.
Isn't the US Dollar the strongest currency?

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e43 2 years ago

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/dollar-vs-ruble-is-russia-currency-worlds-top-performer-traders-2022-5

Sanctions only made the beast stronger.

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mykos 2 years ago

No no doesn't really work that way. First let's distinguish between the two. Particularly what many are talking about is the inflation of cryptocurrencies which are bad.. point blank. There is no evidence of a highly inflated cryptocurrency here or otherwise that's done well.

Bitcoin has done well based on a deflationary model. So i feel like you and @taskmaster4450 are full of it trying to push these shitcoins to your benefit

No ithe evidence is counter that within cryptocurrency. Why is that? Because when you give people alot of coins they are going to likely dump on your heads. In bitcoin myk it's used to control our stability and pricing model if we have a minority of whales controlling bitcoin myk and nobody can dump but them they can control the price but we don't want that.. if you have someone who can control the price then nobody sells it.. we need this to be a currency with stability so with bitcoin myk anybody can buy cheap anytime anybody can sell anytime which means it's flowing that makes sense.. this is why bitcoin can't be a currency but it can be an appreciating asset like gold or something.. that's not useful for us in a ubi project and the citizens divdiend but it's useful to you all who want a growing portfolio which represents a very small percentile of the population most americans can't even afford a $400 emergency don't even have a life savings of $2000 so that is of no interest to them. .what's valuable to them is the us dollar that they use everyday to survive and make purchases.

Now speaking of the us dollar when you speak of inflation and the us dollar doesn't really suffer from inflation you are correct in that sense of the standard economy but this is not the standard economy the crypto space doesn't have controls like the standard economy so it's not even applicable to compare inflation there with in the crypto space in fact it's dumb shows me again you don't know what you talking about anymore than you understood the howey test and i'm not sure why you keep talking about things you don't understand

the us dollar generally doesn't float more than 2%.. now i know you all say things like yea but the actual inflation rate is horribly higher.. Well here's the thing unless you're able to logistically account for every resource on the planet and unless you're able to tell me how much oil is in the ground and unless you're able to tell me when we're going to run out of some good or service for some reason and if you can tell me what ports will be blocked and as a result of what future war etc., then you don't know what's really causing inflation because money is fake and the resources aren't even related to money so whether i print more money or go find a trillion barrels of oil in the ground and that changes the cost of oil and furthermore supply and inflation aren't the same thing.. inflation is just when they print more money but keep in mind in relation to what? goods and services but it's many factors have to work with that and because of so many government controls it's hard to say what the inflation rate is but in crypto it's not comparable okay that's the point

because you and taskmaster lack real economic training and education.. you don't understand that this inflation you all champion some of you want more hive coins printed and released. well you don't understand that the gini coefficient if you don't understand what that is look it up because how you guys think and choose projects i have to really wonder about you all

You don't understand that printing more coins is exactly going to be corelational to the growth of your system and population so hive is shit in growth. it's shit because you all run what's more like a dead end economy of a small percentile controlling the distribution at not a good rate.. so nobody sticks around or if they did as you all believed hive would be a much higher volume trading and performing crypto asset class it is not

lastly the reason bitcoin myk is so important is the deflationary rate balances against the transaction rate and population rate to produce the best outcome. i don't care if you all don't use it or not right now doesn't matter. what matters is producing the best system and like any technology cream rises to the top.. which means people will always in the future select the best application and that's not you that's us sir. so you will fail on your laurels that i guarantee you.

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edicted 2 years ago

this post isn't even about crypto.
im not reading this wall of garbage based on false assumptions and ignorance.
this post is about economic deflation, just-in-time business models, and the inevitable contraction of the world economy. yeah, your coin isn't going to help. maybe next decade during the next depression.

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mykos 2 years ago

this post is about economic deflation

yea but nobody is really going around in the standard economy arguing about if inflation is bad The standard economy inflation rate is controlled it can be good or bad.. the key argument for a crypto blog is often times in context of crypto but whatever.

as far as, bitcoin myk not being the answer and not being able to help.. the idea that people think they can't do anything about the economy is the key reason why the economy is the way it is.

of course we can do something.. what you fail to understand is bitcoin myk is not even about making an investment and can i cash it out for hive. it's about your active voice. your vote in a sense a movement of freedom and what i believe to be a right that forces the system into universal basic income through whether it's activism.. marches.. creating your own political parties .. your own cryptocurrencies based on ubi and we all forming a coalition.. this is why i call you guys dumb all the time. because you all don't have the mental aptitude to understand this.. you're all mostly poor which means you need to work in your own best interest not the best interest of someone else promising you that you'll become billionaires or wealthy and in reality you're not .. you're going to be a victim like everyone else or make a few bucks doing blog post that aren't even going to pay one bill.. let's get for real and get educated folks . no we don't expect one of mankind's greatest ideas and inventions to work magically for you all right away.

we gotta fight for this and claw for this.. but guess what? it's worth it in the end. bitcoin myk is about inspiring you all to fix this problem for good. it's not a magic bullet but neither is bitcoin, hive or any of these cryptocurrencies you all suffering now.. some of you gotta go back to work now. work like hell. can't feed your families because you're too dumb to focus on the root causes of an issue and then actively pursue the solution.

you always want someone else to do it for you.. let me tell you something edicted. " mykos " doesn't have a family to support. has large real estate holdings.. can go anywhere he wants anytime he wants. can do what he wants pretty much in any economy.

i'm leading people to freedom because it's the right thing to do @taskmaster4450.. i'm not interested in you guys little trinkets..

but this is the world's project as well and i'm dayum sure not going to do this alone but i know the people need it. So you all don't have a real solution i do

Those who recognize the truth of my words get up and follow me because these guys aren't going to lead you all anywhere lol

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mykos 2 years ago

And let me tell you why nobody uses bitcoin myk right now but why that's soon going to change because you're wondering that and you've asked the question before

so here's the deal. we're going to jump in a time machine really quick okay. So there is an idea that ubi is a utopian fantasy. so let's travel back in the past to another utopian fantasy and that is a world without human slavery.. so we're in 1860 now .. and we're from the future

i tell the slaveowners... you know slavery is probably not a good idea..that industry is coming as you can see and you won't need the slaves.. they'll cost more to feed and use than machines..etc., the machines won't get sick. to the idealist i'd tell them they will live in a world where there is no slavery and they may even have families with those same slaves one day.

Can you imagine how unimaginable that would be for those people? Now think about why the people would have felt that way? Same reason they feel that way about ubi now. Not that ubi is not a superior system. not that ubi is not a moral system and a better economic stimulus system but because if you were in the south at that time your political power and your means of living and support depended on those slaves although it was ending so the motivation was more about keeping the institution of slavery.

the average citizen in the beginning won't fully push ubi because if they do they in the short term may lose some benefits of capitalism but they are going to lose them anyway as we can see what's happening now and why this has to happen. so this next era of machines is like the beginning of the industrial revolution.. it ended slavery and this next technological revolution will end our economic systems as we know it but we will in turn inherit a better one. so they aren't using bitcoin myk right now because the boots are so far on their necks they can't lift their heads up high enough to see but they will catch that opportunity that i promise you

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mykos 2 years ago

i'll take my seat amongst all the ubi prophets..thomas paine, milton friedman, martin luther king jr.. the greatest men that ever lived and i will destroy all of you unapologetic card carrying capitalist.. " i'll do what i must"

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cliffagreen 2 years ago

It's good for the Earth if demand (consumption) goes down. Of course, it'd be good for the Earth if three quarters of the human population died. What's good for the Earth is (obviously) good for the long-term survival of our species. So, bring on Covid with a high mortality rate and the Great Depression. Let's do this.*

^{*This comment is for entertainment purposes only.}

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yibbiy 2 years ago

Can't you just print money to infinity? 😎

No more deflation.

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edicted 2 years ago

the fed doesnt print usd so no.
only commercial banks print usd via loans
we see that even 0% interest isn't good enough incentive in this climate to issue loans.

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aussieninja 2 years ago

Yeah, I've been harping on about this for a while... and I think Cathie Wood of ARK has been saying it forever.

When prices are high, demand drops... the market is always searching for equilibrium and doesn't often need the US Fed to come in after the fact and double down on everything.

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eatthebugs 2 years ago

R

It's not just that prices are high - it's that salaries haven't kept pace, there is more unemployment than they count based on their criteria, nobody is buying bonds, nobody is building homes, suicidal and desperate business owners and home-owners/buyers are taking out untenable adjustable-rate mortgages.....

All of these many-faceted factors are coming together and it's like that scene in the classic Tom Cruise movie "A Perfect Storm". All we can do now is pray. (They all died tho)

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drax.leo 2 years ago

Tom Cruise didn't star in The Perfect Storm. George Clooney did. Otherwise fine comment. :)

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eatthebugs 2 years ago

tom cruise = matt damon = mark whaleberg = tom hanks

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emeka4 2 years ago

It is really disturbing and frustrating in some point to see deflation trend at the moment which have affected a lot of Investments making it lose it value and profits but since it definitely not a surprise seeing such, we just have to keep all hopes alive to witness inflation pump up again.

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eatthebugs 2 years ago

I'm kind of confused what you are saying here.

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emeka4 2 years ago

!LOLZ

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giorgakis 2 years ago

Do you believe ia late now to invest in gold or silver? I know you are not financial advisor, but i like your point of view! Just your opinion!

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edicted 2 years ago

PMs aren't an investment imo.
They are a redundant backup.
Anyone who wants to actually build value shouldn't be looking to PMs.
PMs are great if we want an oh-shit button in play during a banking crisis.
But they are worthless unless you Physically own them.
I personally like silver better than gold, but both are good hedges.
An appropriate amount would be 1%-3% our net worth into PMs.

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typebox 2 years ago

Perverted prudence ! if only the world woke up to the lie and then forced to confront sobering deflationary truth. Like yanking the rug out from under the entire space. Deflationary money running wild across every market spot, including stocks.

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india-leo 2 years ago

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eatthebugs 2 years ago

Did you watch the absolute childlike integrity of the "grilling" of Powell yesterday in Congress?

These congressmen, if they're in trouble in the ratings, were soft-balling questions in, pandering that they cared about gas prices and groceries going up.

Only a couple people, John Kennedy included, asked the right questions:

"Why are you telling the American people that inflation is the issue now and that you're going to try and control it but you're not telling them that all you can do is cause a recession by destroying demand?? There is no supply increase that would matter if no one can function in this economy and there is no employment" (my paraphrase)

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cryptoguitar9999 2 years ago

We are in for a mixture of inflation in prices of basic necessities and deflation in value of all the assets you already own including your fiat currency.

Whatever paltry amount they raise interest rates it's not anywhere close to the actual rate of inflation which is 15% - 20%. So they raised interest rates by 0.75%, how many raises are they really going to do to get close to the real inflation rate?

The question remains, where to park your assets now? Precious metals, BTC and crypto.

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