Fun story:
An hour before the market crashed I hedged my bets a little bit in anticipation of the crash. I guess I'm getting better at this.
Once again this head-and-shoulders pattern seems to be completing. In my opinion, only in the strongest of scenarios would be bounce off of $40k. Far more likely that we get all the way down to $35k or even $30k. Again, if we get to $30k I'm pretty happy, because that's a return to the doubling curve and it means I can start borrowing to long Bitcoin for the first time in over a year.
2022 Bitcoin Doubling Curve
| Jan | Feb | Mar | April | May | June |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $27733 | $29867 | $32,000 | $34133 | $36267 | $38400 |
| July | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $40533 | $42667 | $44800 | $46933 | $49067 | $51200 |
The doubling curve will be above $50k by EOY.
This is actually pretty exciting, because while everyone else moans about a "multi-year bear market", we are really just deflating back to the doubling curve. If we are testing $30k support in February it's pretty much only up from there. Again, thinking back to everyone that doubted the doubling curve when Bitcoin was trading at all time highs and everyone just assumed we'd get to $100k at least by the end of the year... ah who am I kidding people never learn.
Ragnarok
https://peakd.com/hive-181335/@theycallmedan/xepgkhus
Dan did a 53 minute vlog explaining the Ragnarok AMA and some of the follow up questions that were raised from it. The craziest thing about this vlog for me is that he's basically just going through my own post and addressing the questions and comments I brought up. So weird how I seem to have injected myself into this narrative. That's decentralization for ya. Community owned and all that.
Key takeaways as the ping-pong match continues:
There are Gold/Silver/Bronze versions of every card.
Meaning two cards in game could have exactly the same functionality but the amount of XP the Gold card generates will be higher. This creates some interesting dynamics because the game itself is simultaneously pay-to-play and play-to-earn.- An all gold deck would be expensive but also generate massive XP returns over time. Gold cards could be thought of as an investment. Having gold cards could be the difference between making money and losing money in terms of cost to heal between matches.
- It's possible that certain high powered (but also bronze) cards would be saved until the end of the season (crunch time). During crunch time the goal is to boost your rating as high as possible without worrying too much about the healing cost or the XP generated for wins.
- There's also the question of how much more XP does one get for beating a highly ranked opponent vs a low rank. Guess we'll find out.
XP Tokens, Gods, and Spells all persist between seasons.
I had forgotten that the way XP tokens work is that they are "powered up" to whatever card you want to level. Powering them down has some kind of cost to it (like a burn that get's allocated to some other random communal resource).- This makes a lot of sense because the sheer number of spells and Gods someone might have is quite astronomical considering each one can be leveled up 8 times to a max level 9. The odds that someone has a full deck with fully leveled up spells is pretty low. And even if that did happen that player must have pumped an arm and a leg into buying XP tokens from others, which is great because it means they subsidized the entire game for everyone else.
- I've seen a few people complain about how the game won't be worth playing because only the top 100 win prizes at the end. That's where the XP tokens come into play. How are the top 100 going to make it into the top 100 without buying XP tokens? Don't be surprised if farming XP tokens turns into a more profitable venture than actually making it into the top 100.
- Remember how much money players have pumped into completely failed games like Drugwars? Ragnarok is sure to be exponentially better than other games that succeeded in getting plenty of initial liquidity.
- I've seen a few people complain about how the game won't be worth playing because only the top 100 win prizes at the end. That's where the XP tokens come into play. How are the top 100 going to make it into the top 100 without buying XP tokens? Don't be surprised if farming XP tokens turns into a more profitable venture than actually making it into the top 100.
- This makes a lot of sense because the sheer number of spells and Gods someone might have is quite astronomical considering each one can be leveled up 8 times to a max level 9. The odds that someone has a full deck with fully leveled up spells is pretty low. And even if that did happen that player must have pumped an arm and a leg into buying XP tokens from others, which is great because it means they subsidized the entire game for everyone else.
- Betting HP poker mechanics are a big deal.
At first, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense... betting your own health as a metric for how much damage we'll do. But then again we can think about it like overextending for a huge power-move. If you miss you're going to get counterattacked even harder because you're so off balance. This sounds extremely luck based but poker is 100% a game of skill if enough hands are played. Seeing as games will take 10-40 minutes that's plenty of time to add a great deal of skill into the game. - NFTs equate to voting power.
The governance of the game will be based on ownership of the NFT Gods. This is a pretty unique way of going about it and I'm intrigued with the outcome. - The ultimate goal is to make an MMO.
Ragnarok is just the opening game to get the ball rolling and hopefully create a community-owned funding mechanism that allows more games to be built on top of it. The pipe-dream would be to create an MMO like World of Warcraft on the Hive blockchain. Every game that comes out after this will likely airdrop the owners of Ragnarok cards. It is unclear if Hive holders will continue getting airdrops going forward with this particular branch of products.
Kazakhstan? Yes... Kazakhstan...
So I guess energy prices have doubled in Kazakhstan and the people are revolting. They shut off the Internet and shortly after the the "government resigned" (lol).
You mean Kazakhstan is more than just the butt of my 'hilarious' Borat jokes?
Apparently they mine a lot of Bitcoin in Kazakhstan, which is funny because all of this instantly reminds me of the legacy argument against crypto.
Governments will ban it.
They will even turn off the Internet!
Yeah well the government turned off the Internet, and now president has resigned and fled for his life. lol. This is what people don't get. Globalism doesn't exist. The mob has WAY WAY WAY more raw power than anyone seems to give them credit. If the mob turns against you, it doesn't matter how powerful you are: you are done, son.
And so while the elite play their little game of cat and mouse, the second people wake up to the bullshit... everyone is in for a world of pain. Just try shutting off the Internet in America for a couple days... I dare you... see what happens. lol, yeah right!
The Internet and other forms of entertainment (and rage venting) stop the people from overthrowing the government; it keeps them sedated and apathetic. If you turn them off... there's nothing left to protect you from a mob that has nothing left to lose.
Another thing that people don't seem to get is that when poor people lose, that doesn't mean that rich people win. We can all lose together, fam. If the Internet goes down, everyone loses. If the economy stops working, everyone loses.
In fact, the worst financial crisis moments in the economy all had one thing in common: most everyone lost. Rich and poor, big and small, when the river of liquidity stops flowing, when the Nile runs dry, everyone suffers. Not just the poor. It's only noticeable for the poor because there is a big difference between losing half your net worth and starving in the street.
Meanwhile crypto is a win/win solution that helps and empowers everyone (including the banks and the corporations). Such is the nature of an inclusive open source network. The only thing that can break a bank, is itself.
Conclusion
Lots of stuff going on today. The market continues to crash. For the first time ever I have a hedge that I can use to buy the dip. How exciting.
The double airdrop for Hive is coming down the pipe soon™. I even read something about how the snapshot might occur at midnight UTC (which would be in less than 2 hours from now). Don't quote me on that, as I'll be hodling away until there is some kind of official announcement.
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