I thought I should analyze what are our options on Hive for the rest of the bull market if we consider probable price evolution scenarios.
I'll list them based on the increasing risk or experience needed that is associated with them. I only consider the HIVE and HBD for these scenarios. There may be others if we include Hive-Engine, or Binance and its HIVE futures or leverage.
1. HODL
Good For: very little risk, its ease of being applied, more HP at the end, your influence in the network
Bad For: There are better alternatives for the dollar-value of your portfolio over time (without leaving the Hive ecosystem).
I personally use this strategy for my staking account (@gadrian-sp), and I will only power down part of that stake if the price of HIVE goes really nuts and stays there for a while. I'm thinking around 5$ would be where I'd start procedures to power down part of my staking account, but that for me starts with an undelegation process. Anyway, my goal is to have more HP at the end, so even if I power down I do it with this target in mind.
I'm using this strategy with the main part of my stake for these reasons:
- if you care about the future of Hive, it makes no sense to completely power down - stake is what secures Hive (yes, witnesses do, but they are voted in by stakeholders)
- I want to keep most of my influence on Hive in the major aspects of it where stake matters
- I don't want to risk it
2. (Power Down? and) Sell at Predetermined Price Levels
Good For: preserving dollar-value of your portfolio, potentially increasing your HP if coupled with the strategy of buying back HIVE during/after the bear market; not worrying about short term or intra-day price swings
Bad For: the predetermined price levels may not correspond to the best moments to sell, higher predetermined prices may not be reached, other opportunities during the bull market may be ignored, influence on Hive is lost for the HP that is powered down
This strategy supposes that you already have one or more price levels where you have decided to sell HIVE, if they are reached. You are not interested of the price swings, only if or when the price levels are reached.
If the necessary HIVE you decided to sell isn't liquid, that also supposes a decision to start powering down at a certain (usually predetermined) date.
The strategy is relatively low risk, if prices are well chosen. What follows depends on what is your purpose. You could use the HBD (buy stuff with it), could put it to work in savings and use it later, as needed. Or throw them in savings and wait for the moment to buy more HIVE. Others may choose a different option instead of HBD during the bear market (i.e. BTC).
3. Play Major, Medium-Term Price Swings
Good For: If applied well and the previous cycle pattern holds, should be more profitable than the previous option.
Bad For: It is medium-high risk, not for impatient ones, or people who don't understand at least basic TA or how market sentiments work.
It assumes previous cycle pattern closely repeats (which has so far). If it doesn't, it may be high risk, but the sell price may still be a very good one. That makes it a low-medium risk to sell (at least partially) at the end of the current major rally and not buy back, even if the price at the end of the bull market would be higher.
What we see now is a serious rally of HIVE which is very likely to continue, after this short break. At some point (I won't say a price, it's up to you to determine it or trust other sources), we will likely have major profit taking, which will dump the price of HIVE seriously. I am thinking at that time many will call the end of the bull market for HIVE.
If the patterns continues like in the past, that won't be the case. But it takes balls to buy HIVE after such a massive price decline. It is also risky, because if the last part doesn't play out like before with another leg up, those buying would end up catching falling knifes.
So, the idea would be to sell at the top of the current rally (or close to it), buy back after the profit taking, and then sell at the end of the bull market. The last part of kind of blurry, since no one knows where it is. It can be a combination of slowly DCAing out based on price, and timing the end of the bull market based on the date and what the general crypto market is doing.
4. Get Involved with Individual Pumps
Good For: Can be more profitable than everything else (but not necessarily). Needs constant attention on the market and checking and adjusting your orders. Needs a good understanding of the crypto markets and the HIVE pumps.
Bad For: The highest risk. Intra-day or within a few days, serious price manipulations can happen, and if you are on the wrong side of the trade(s), you will lose. People who get frustrated, can't let go of their unprofitable trades (or switch direction very often without a clear sign that they should), don't follow a system that prevents them from doubling down in a mistake and that usually leads to profit.
If you don't know what you are doing, I suggest to be very careful with this one. It's very easy to lose on individual pumps. Forget about the memory of the very predictable HIVE pumps during the bear market. We are dealing with a different thing now.
If your goal is to make a HBD profit, it's ok to sell after a HIVE pump. But if your objective is to have more HIVE either because you want more HBD profit, or because you want more HIVE on the long term, you should only sell HIVE if you think you can buy it back at a lower price. At least now, while we expect HIVE to keep going up. It will be a different story as it will go down.
It doesn't always work out as you want. Proof of that are the mistakes I made on the recent series of pumps (except the last one, I didn't catch the one from yesterday). But in the end I finished those pumps in profit, even if a relatively small one compared to the available liquid HIVE.
Conclusion
You can apply a combination of these scenarios. I do and will do that. But be sure you understand the level or risk and understanding (knowledge) you need to be able to apply each of them successfully, or to understand if it fails and do what you have to do under the circumstances.
Posted Using INLEO
