These days is Euro 2024 from which I am surprisingly disconnected despite our national team playing and now being qualified to the next phase.
What do we have plenty of in football, particularly in final tournaments? Some would say quality football, and that may be. Others may say tactical matches, and that may be. Others may say surprises, and those do happen. Beer pours in huge quantities too.
But I'm more interested in the other thing that's abundant: emotions.
Now, tell me which of these emotions you don't find before, during, or after a football game:
- disbelief
- hope
- optimism
- belief
- thrill
- euphoria
- complacency
- anxiety
- denial
- panic
- capitulation
- anger
There was one more, "depression", but one couldn't really experience depression in the short term.
Many of these emotions can be experienced in rapid sequence by one side or the other during one game that lasts 90 minutes, maybe 120 minutes, and usually a little more depending on additional time.
Do you recognize these emotions? Of course you do!
These are the emotions that drive the crypto market sentiment throughout its cycle. But when the link between the price and market sentiment was first made it applied to the stock market, not to crypto.
I thought it was an interesting parallel between football and crypto, based on the role of sentiments in decision making.
Let's see what I mean. Last month the Fear & Greed Index was 72. Last week it was still in the greed territory at 60. Today is at 40, after visiting 30 two days ago.
All these values are stupid, if you ask me. 70+ is what you should see toward the euphoria phase. <30 is what you should see in the bear market. We are in neither situations, and yet the market sentiment is all over the place. And if you check it historically, you will see how much it blows things out of proportion in both directions.
In football, you often see the coach being asked to leave after an awful result. My football national team, two years ago or so finished last in a reasonable Conference League group. Let's forget that no one likes that competition! I believe we went down from 2nd league to 3rd league or something like that. Anyway, a league where our opponents would be the likes of Gibraltar... No offense, hopefully!
Everyone was very upset particularly in media and the national team coach (our current coach!) was asked to leave. We were after a long string of coaches, and last time pretty much no one else showed up but him to take on the national team.
Long story short... he didn't leave. Two years later, the team qualified to Euro from the first position above Switzerland, undefeated. And it's out of the groups stage.
I'm not writing this to congratulate him (I don't even like the guy) or the team. They are perfectly capable of understanding their progress, which is what's important!
I'm writing this to show how often emotions are in the way of performance. Or in the case of crypto, how harmful being at the whim of market sentiment is. So, don't be that guy or gal that is under the market sentiment. Dominate it! Do what's best for you and the projects you are involved with, long term!
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