There is a positive atmosphere in the global markets and the crypto ecosystem because the payroll benchmark triggered the bullish sentiment once again. According to the actual data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the difference between the measured and the actual data differs drastically.
It is shown that there was a total of -818,000 difference which means that the labor data was highly misleading between March 2023 and 2024. While the data can vary that much, it is really shady to believe in the numbers published with us.
Due to the gap between the actual data and the one published, the FED and all investors considered their stances regarding the well - being of the U.S. economy.
The abnormal divergence, U.S. payrolls revised down by 818k, has no justifiable reason to explain the case we face.
Though the markets are motivated, we need to consider one more piece of data before turning completely bullish.
We all remember the day when all markets almost crashed with a single decision by the Bank of Japan. The first interest rate hike after 2007 hit the market hard. Now, the investors and the fund managers are prudent to take action before seeing the data coming from Japan.
The risk of higher CPI than the forecasts can be a reason for markets to be red as the rumors about another interest rate hike by BoJ become a possibility. So, while entering a new position, it might be a wise decision to hedge the risks as the uncertainties surround the market one more time.
the FED is expected to apply a 0.25 bps interest rate cut in September, however, the main character has shifted from the U.S. to Japan for the global markets. As long as the interest rates are kept in a range that is not too high or too low, the fancied days might be around the corner.
The Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 may compensate for all our losses and the paradigm may shift smoothly with soft landings in the major economies. Until these quarters, the zigzag formations in the markets should be taken for granted.
What do you think about the data coming from the U.S. payrolls and the upcoming one from Japan?
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Posted Using InLeo Alpha