Unless you are new to crypto, you have probably heard a lot of things like
"Alt season will not happen this cycle," or "BTC is king, alts are trash," or "this cycle will never be like the last, do not expect anything," ? and people completely forgot that when COVID struck in 2020, it felt like the apocalypse.
Granted, this cycle has differed from the previous one in a few ways. We are seeing "too slow" or "too fast," and the timing of certain expectations has not matched.
However, BTC unexpectedly hits 89k, setting a new ATH, despite many believing that 100k by the end of the year was impossible due to how slowly things appear to be happening in this cycle. In reality, this is the most FUDish bull cycle we have seen thus far, with people questioning almost everything simply because their alt bag has not pumped.
What is the reason behind this?
The bear cycle was unquestionably one of the worst
We literally started the bear with the US SEC cracking down on fraudulent exchanges, and it all went downhill with FTX and SBF. Most people were unaware that the bull run of 2021 would not end smoothly. BTC was at 18k in 2022, and they said crypto was dead.
It will be difficult to kill crypto, and I doubt the next bear cycle will be as bearish as the last. Why? I believe Gary Gensler will be gone by then, and more cooperative entities will be even more involved in crypto.
Through Cycles, Human Behavior Is The Same
Despite all of the complaints that this cycle has not looked anything like the last, we are starting to see some similar behavior that appears to have occurred in Q4 2020. This is that particular period where people are playing the regret games: "oh I wish I had 200$ in BTC now".
They forgot they had the opportunity to do so since the beginning of the year, but they let their FUD get the best of them.
Let us not even talk about the Bitcoin frenzy. The emphasis is now on alts. I believe now is the best time to buy your favorite alt. This is because altcoins do not pump like BTC. Most alts take no more than 8 months to reach their ATH, whereas BTC takes much longer.
Most people sleep on alts, and by the time they wake up, most of the alts they should be holding have reached their ATH and are no longer able to enter.
As I have previously stated, new mistakes will be made in this run, and many others will continue to be poor as a result of their FUD and greed; many will even miss out because they are comparing the timing of the previous cycle to this one.
A Million-Dollars Mistake
I read a post where someone talked about hitting one million dollars but not selling, and they are probably now regretting it. Now I understand that many people made this mistake in 2021.
However, another interesting thing I noticed about this person is that they are now selling all of the bag that earned them that million dollars in 2021 to invest in another project, and the most painful part is that they are even selling at a loss. My thoughts are, why not just wait for alt season? Since that bag made you a million dollars in 2021, why not keep Faith instead of dumping it for another project whose outcome you do not know in 2025?
Granted, you may not make a million dollars in the next cycle with the same bag. Or you might even make 2 million, or 500k; whatever it is, you know you have seen this project pump in the past, so why sell it now at its lowest price?
You see, the fear of not making enough profit in 2021 will drive people to make more irrational decisions, which means that people will go through different cycles and continue to make catastrophic mistakes as they try to correct the mistakes of previous cycles.
However, I would avoid talking too much. If my bags were worth a million dollars and I did not sell them when I should, it could leave me scarred for the rest of my life. These opportunities do not come along very often in life, and the regret of killing the golden goose that lays the golden egg can be painful, but you have to hold, have faith, and courage in the midst of FUD.
The Game Is Hard
If cryptocurrency was easy, people like Micheal Saylor would not be considered legends. Anyone can easily borrow money, and buy crypto, provided profit is guaranteed and then you can just pay back the money you loaned, but it's not as logical and straightforward as that.
It is difficult to be 90% down and still hold; many people will lose their minds and sell to avoid losing, even if they can actually hold and come out on top. Crypto is difficult because it requires mental fortitude, and most people who appear to be lucky are not; they are simply mentally strong.
However, it's not completely bad when you're fearful, it's always better to have a plan and follow it, jumping ships when alt seasons is probably weeks to months away is classic panic and this is one mistake that the consequences is not really emphasized upon. Again, do your research and remain strong.
You will not be able to imagine or guess what will happen in Q1, because it will be beyond your wildest expectations. May the grace of the Lord Jesus Christ be with you all.
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