I was speaking with @gadrian today about how historical events in crypto have created a bizarre expectation of how crypto prices should be. I believe it is a rarely considered or discussed topic because it is not directly related to money; rather, it is about crypto psychology, which is greatly underestimated.
In this post I mentioned how the months leading up to a bull market year are always the most difficult and mentally stressful because people have certain price expectations, and when these price expectations are not met, people begin to speculate that there will be no bull run.
We start imagining roadblocks and figuring out why these prices have not gone the way we expected.
The "US election" Parameter
Recently, the US elections were one of those, but I am looking forward to the next narrative that we will present after the elections are completed in about seven days; perhaps there will not be enough catalysts to propel the market?
Or perhaps if Kamala wins, this will mean no bull run. Aside from that, we have heard that retail is simply too broke to enter the market, so only BTC may rise while alts remain stagnant. I believe many of these statements will continue until the end of the year, which is not surprising.
We did not have this level of panic or statements at the start of the year. In fact, when BTC broke its previous ATH prior to the halving, we predicted the largest bull run ever, but nothing spectacular has occurred since.
I believe we are shooting ourselves in the foot with unrealistic expectations; if COVID occurs in 2024, I am confident the sentiment will be completely negative regardless. However, it is possible that there were not many expectations after COVID, or that crypto has attracted more people, but whatever the case, it is more of a psychological than a realistic issue.
There is literally no proof that we will not moon; granted, BTC has been doing all of the mooning, and alts are still flat, but everything remains unchanged. Now, while I believe that historical events should not be used to predict what will happen in the future, I also believe that no one should panic or stress out because it is not yet a proper bull market year.
The UPtober Craze
I know the UPtober and Q4 tags have caused a lot of controversy. Since the beginning of the year, October has been the most anticipated month due to its historical significance, but it has not occurred, and some of the events appear to make it look rather bad.
At this point, it is more of a mental game.
This war will only be won by those who are mentally courageous. It is probably time to stop making up reasons why we have not mooned. For example, I believe that Kamala Harris winning the election will have no effect on how well crypto will perform beginning in January; it is too late for that to happen.
People have called Michael Saylor names for investing large sums of money in cryptocurrency, and I recall the world laughing at El Salvador's president. He bought at a high price, which is probably why he received a lot of jeers, but profits are unavoidable, and this bull run will most likely reward the biggest risk takers.
Not many people have the stomach, and this is a psychological issue. It is unrelated to crypto in general. When someone is concerned that their asset will go to zero, it is more about their state of mind than reality.
The Mind VS Reality
Most of the sentiment and supposed parameters as to why we have not mooned yet will have no effect, and we will only realize how foolish or wrong we were when the market takes off.
BTC At 71k Who Cares?
Again, no one is paying attention to Bitcoin at 71k, and there are two reasons for this. The first reason is that October has been filled with some of the most frustrating crab walks this year, and they may decrease before the end of the month. The second reason is that these pumps do not have a direct effect on the alts.
In reality, the alts do not move this way. While most alts move when BTC moves, the reason an alt can do x50 while BTC only does x3 is because alts pump faster during the full season.
Now unless you're 100% in BTC, you won't care much about BTC at 71k
100k
However, most people seem to believe that once the alts reach 100k BTC, they will finally begin to move; I believe it is a long way from 71k to 100k. Is it possible from now until the end of the year? I do not know. However if we follow previous pattern it probably should, so this means that 100k is achievable in two months.
Then again, no one should put their absolute hope in these patterns and this is the main theme of this post.
I believe that everyone should be looking forward to what happens in a proper bull run year, rather than being scared, agitated, or frustrated; the biggest mistake would be to be caught while watching.
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