The average gain BTC made in Q4 2020 was a whopping 88%; if BTC decides to replicate that in Q4 2024, BTC will be at $120k; this may sound like hopium, but believe me, it isn't; if this cycle is anything like the last one, BTC will hit over $100k at worst, and close to 120k at best.
Now, I believe that the majority of these massive numbers will come in December, while October and November will only see a slight increase; however, even if we do not see that 88% gain, and this cycle decides to underperform and not match what we saw in the previous one, we may see BTC at 100k.
Now, there are reasons why this cycle may underperform, and we must not ignore them because they are valid, which is why we should always discuss worst-case scenarios. However, are there any reasons why this cycle will be better than the previous one? Yes, the spot ETFs.
Personally, the ETF is at the heart of this cycle, and what it primarily does is inflate and pump numbers, which may not be particularly healthy, but for 99% of people in this cycle, anything that pumps the market outweighs decentralization or anything crypto intrinsically represents.
We saw this when BTC broke its previous ATH before the halving, then took a serious dump and nearly destroyed the alts.
However, we have yet to see an altcoin season, and many people believe that because of this delay, we may not see one. Guaranteed, the alts are performing really late and are taking time to come to the party, but September has shown a sign of the numbers that altcoin could potentially do, and somehow people are beginning to change their minds.
SPS
Let us return home for a while.
I remember 4 to 5 months ago when SPS was being destroyed and people were panicking; the way it was dipping, anyone could have predicted it would go to zero, but here we are today, and SPS is doing phenomenal numbers.
Now, while I do not want to say it is entirely due to Matt and the boys in charge, I do believe that the market's positive momentum has helped to turn things around a little. This is exactly what the market does. A positive market boosts confidence.
People do not always lose faith in a project because it is no longer exciting; rather, a negative market creates the illusion that the project is dead. I am not saying Splinterlands was declared dead; rather, I believe many people lost faith as a result of the team's numerous poor decisions and the fact that the price of their assets continues to plummet.
I bought SPS in cents a few months ago and kept doing so until I ran out of money. Now my inner spidy sense is saying to me "if you had bought 200$ worth of SPS you would be in some serious profit", but then my other sense replies, "where could I have gotten 200$?", and then the other one replies, "I do not know, you idiot maybe anyhow, applied for a bank loan or borrowed the money, sell later and pay back"
The Market Maths
This is the type of math the brain does when the market finally recovers and you regret not getting more.
In reality, many people in early 2025 will hate themselves for not purchasing the coin they thought was dead, or they will resent themselves for selling when they should have been piling.
Q4
Q4 is just 5 days away, and by November/December, BTC would have been doing incredible numbers. Why care so much? This is because this is when alts regain their value. As I used to say, the market pumps everything in its path, and instead of predicting which coin will perform best, it is time to start accumulating.
Now, I am terrible at following my own advice because I have exhausted my financial position for personal reasons, but if you have been reading my posts, I believe it is time you start making some risky market decisions, or you will be left behind.
Personally, I believe that the latter part of Q4 will be a source of regret for many people, as they will have reached a point where it is financially difficult to enter the market.
Interested in some more of my works
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