The Bitcoin halving is drawing near, leading to a divide among experts, with conflicting opinions on the potential outcomes. All eyes are on this event, and according to Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, there could be a significant outflow of Bitcoin, with miners potentially liquidating up to $5 billion worth of BTC after the halving. Moreover, the selling pressure could persist for a period ranging from four to six months, causing a standstill in the asset's movement, similar to what was observed in previous halvings. Thielen referred to a historical Bitcoin price model and noted that in the five months following the 2020 halving, the asset remained in a range between $9,000 and $11,500.
Is an altcoin crash on the horizon? The halving, expected on April 20, is anticipated to trigger an imbalance between supply and demand, as miners typically accumulate BTC before the event. This accumulation often results in a subsequent price increase. This year, Bitcoin has seen a significant surge of 74%, reaching an all-time high of $73,734 on March 14, before experiencing a correction and sliding to $63,000 in mid-April. The head of research at 10x
Research is not only concerned about Bitcoin but also about altcoins. According to him, they may not withstand the situation. Many altcoins have experienced declines in recent weeks and are still far from the highs reached in 2021. The market expects an altcoin rally after the halving, but considering past events, it could take six months before a price surge begins. Additionally, the analyst believes that Marathon, the world's largest Bitcoin miner, has likely accumulated reserves, which will be gradually sold after the halving to avoid a sudden revenue collapse. Thielen estimated that Marathon's reserves, combined with its post-halving mining output of 14-15 BTC per day, could lead to additional supply on the market for another 133 days. If other miners were to adopt the same strategy and gradually liquidate their stocks after the halving, we could see a maximum daily sale of Bitcoin of up to $104 million. This could reverse the balance between supply and demand that fueled the asset's crypto rally before the halving. Previously, Marathon CEO Peter Thiel stated that after the halving, the price of BTC should remain around $46,000 to prevent the company from incurring losses. Therefore, he does not expect significant price movements in the six months following the halving.
What will happen after the Bitcoin halving? With just a few days left until the halving, tension in the market is palpable. Recently, Satoshi Nakamoto's currency reached an all-time high, but rumors of a negative scenario after the halving have become strong. For example, billionaire Arthur Hayes, crypto analyst and founder of the BitMEX exchange, is skeptical about the positive effect of the halving and has predicted that prices may not react as many expect, with a BTC crash before and after the halving. Coinbase also believes that it may be difficult to see a price surge, as traders anticipate an increase before the halving.