There are a number of people who believe we are entering a period of de-globalization. After Brexit, Trump tariffs, and the US-China ongoing issues, it is easy to see how this could be the case.
However, are we falling for appearances when the reality is much different? Is it possible that a lot of smart people are misinterpreting the situation? How could that happen?
It is possible for both sides of the discussion to be right. To me, this is just a matter of perspective.
To illustrate, consider looking at a stock based upon a 10 year chart. One might easily conclude that we are looking at a bear. That said, if we view the 6 month or 1 year chart, we get the opposite answer.
This is how the globalization/de-globalization discussion is going.
The De-Globalization of Manufacturing
What we term "globalization" typically refers to the globalization of manufacturing. We all know how blue collar jobs in Western developed countries were lost when production was moved to cheaper areas, mostly China.
Essentially, factories were set up there, good produced and shipped to the countries of consumption. This was a process that stared 50 years ago and really took off over the 30.
Certainly, the rise of China as a major power was due to this transition. It was the major recipient of the paradigm shift. At the same time, developed countries good flooded with less expensive goods.
This is what is being reverse. We see a variety of factors causing this, geopolitics being just one of them. Probably more important to the discussion is technology, specifically automation.
China has the capability to enhance it margins by automating production. Due to advancements in robotics and machinery, we see a shift in how things are made. There is a challenge with this.
If a plant is constructed in China, filled with robots, fed raw materials, and products come out, what prevents that from occurring anywhere?
The reality is that the next 30 years is going to see de-globalization in the sense that products will be made closer to where they are consumed. It is a reality the world needs to face.
Globalization Over The Next 30 Years
One problem with the concept of de-globalization is the fact that the digital world is becoming a larger part of our lives. Society is seeing more digitized, meaning that we are immersing ourselves in a world that has no geographic borders.
Today, a kid in Nigeria as the same opportunity to impact 100 million people with an application as someone in Silicon Valley. It matters none where someone is located.
Here is where we see the "1 year chart" telling a different story than the 10 year. While manufacturing is reversing the trend, digitization is accelerating it. After all, as long as one has an Internet connection, a digital download can occur anywhere.
Take online gaming. Here we see many that are "free" to play. However, people often spend money on skins or other in-game assets. These purchases can come from anywhere in the world. That is globalization.
We see this same thing with financial products. Because of the way Wall Street and other entities operate, their products can be purchased anywhere in the world. As long as someone can go through the KYC process, buying from Istanbul is the same as in Topeka.
Yesterday we discussed how the automobile dealership could face elimination due to online purchasing. The reality is that people can buy Tesla's anywhere in the world they are delivering to. It does not matter where one is, at least on the basis of ordering.
Music, video, communications, gaming and shopping are all facing the same thing.
Cryptocurrency Is Global
Probably the biggest shift that many of us are familiar with is the move into cryptocurrency. Look at a platform such as Leofinance, we can see how the reward pool is split up among users from all over the world. We have people from Nigeria posting along side those from Canada. It doesn't matter one bit what nation people are located in. Actually, we often have no idea where the individual is actually from.
Blockchain operates on a global basis. We see the nodes for Hive spread all over the world. It is a data base that is accessed by many different front ends. Those were also set up in different countries.
Here we really see how this is going. The idea the world is separating based upon geography is not possible in the digital realm. So, the only question is whether one thinks this will keep expanding or reverse course?
Personally, there is no way, in my view, the digital world is going to recede. It will only grow in power over the next few decades.
And ultimately, this will play into the globalization of real estate. Here we see another trend that is going to radically alter things.
The number of digital nomads is only going to grow and provides us with another way globalization will occur.
Therefore, the answer to the debate depends upon the view one carries with it.
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