A lot of smart people are holding out hope that more jobs will be created than destroyed by technology. To me, this is an impossibility.
Technology, by nature, is deflationary. The impact of this is lost on most. It seems the inflation bad, deflation good crowd has not thought things through.
Who benefitted from the Great Depression? Was it the average workers? How about the small farm owner?
We know the answer to this. The working class was affected a great deal more than the wealthy. Those who lost much, but not all, in the crash to end the Roaring 20s were able to buy on the cheap.
Deflation is a jobs killer. This is something that we must acknlowledge.
The Pace of Advancement and Jobs
With a rapidly advancing technological age, we can expect the same for job destruction. I wrote a great deal how Hollywood (the industry) was done. Even before the fires, there were sectors of that industry that were suffering. People were not able to find work, with many starting to move onto different things.
Over the next decade, we will see this same situation repeated. By the middle of the next decade, we will not likely have jobs as drivers, in retail, or fast food. Regulation might prevent massive disruption in healthcare and education although they are primed for change.
This is the nature of technology.
But what about creating more jobs? Technology often does that.
While that is true, here is where I think people make a fatal mistake. They presume any new jobs will be filled by humans. In my view, it is more likely that any the majority of new jobs will be handled by machines (robots or computers).
Is It Starting?
Like most of these matters, we are dealing with something very nuanced. Numbers could steer us in a direction, or they could provide the proverbial headfake. For this reason, we have to look at things with a wider lens to attempt to figure out what is taking place.
Unfortunately, when it becomes obvious, it is too late.
Are we starting to see the first signs of this technological job destruction?
Over the last year, Big Tech has undergone a large number of layoffs. This is across the board and not relegated to just a few companies. Most of the biggest names, along with the second and third tier, did this.
Here is my problems: many of these companies are seieng record revenues. They are churning along, swallowing up market share. What does the tech sector know?
It would stand to reason that these companies would be the first to implement the technologies that are developed. We could be looking at the early onset of a shift in the structure of the economy.
This is all in line with the world of bits. It moves much faster than that of atoms. When it comes to the first wave of disruption, I see knowledge workers being the initial ones caught in the crosshairs.
The Robots Are Coming
People will not have time to relax after the first gut punch due to the fact that robots are on the horizon. Humanoid robots will be produced by the millions. This will happen by the end of the decade.
Here is where the AI factories take over. The robots are the bridge between the physical and digital world. While atoms do not move as fast as bits, the sheer volume of "workers" created will overwhelm the humans.
The advantages that robots have are well known by this time. With a workforce of robots, there is a reduced need for a HR department. Of course, that is going to be automated too.
At some point, it is likely that AI agents are partnered with robots, to create a "company" that has few (to no) people.
We are enetering a deflationary age. The impact will be felt on jobs.
Posted Using INLEO
