Good day Hiveians!
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The Hive Pump had us all excited in the last week
We went from sub 40 cents to over 70 in just 2 days! But in the posts covering this pump we also talked about how this behavior in Hive has always resulted in a dump as well. Hive likes to spike and when it does you should sell your Hive and rebuy at a much lower price. Of course if you are in it for the long run these pump & dumps don't really mean a lot. If you are holding and staking Hive for months and years, only the long term trend is relevant. Let's first have a look at this latest price spike before looking at the more long term picture.
This is the price action over the last few weeks:
What I "like" about this chart is that price movement seems to suggest a bottom. This is visible by drawing trend lines connecting the lows. When they show the pattern seen here (declining slopes in the trend lines) it is often a good indication that a bottom is in.
But we also know that Hive's fractal often repeats in the following way:
This means that there is a good chance for a "final" dump which might take us to 40 cents or a bit lower again.
But this is really insignificant within the larger context. When we zoom out we can see that in an impulse wave price goes on average up. One example is seen here:
In October of last year we saw a very similar movement. After the pump and dump we saw a price consolidation fro which we "luckily" have a corresponding trend line for this time as well. The thicker blue trend line could act as the necessary support for this consolidation phase. This trend line is also the lower trend line in the bigger converging channel in which price has been moving.
We can see this quite nicely here:
There are still a few big resistances coming up all between 50 and 70 cents. For this reason I think it is plausible to expect a price increase to at least this area again. But what happens after that is more unclear. We could see a rejection or a breach of this resistance.
But notice that volume is increasing as well. This is very important and normally signals a more bullish scenario. In fact, I am leaning more towards the bullish scenario (even although we are still in a macro bear market) because of the HIVE/BTC potential. This is really huge and overlooked. Hive is exactly on track to a bug upwards push in this chart (see post). Lastly, have a look at what happened last year at this time. In July of 2021 Hive was pushing upwards in a big way. From 16 cents to $3.4! Again, as we are still in a bear market I am a bit wary to say that we will again test the upper boundary of this converging channel. But it is quite likely that we could push to 70 cents and beyond over the next months.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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