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The Rally for Hive that I was hoping for is currently stalled
Just 6 days ago I was hopeful that there would be a turn around. But now with Hive being at around 38 cents the potential rally to about $2 has stalled. Does this mean that Hive will continue to crash? Maybe, but if we look at previous rallies, a correction like we are seeing currently is not uncommon.
In this post I want to show the red lines of when I would consider this rally to be invalidated. Also keep in mind that in January I outlined 3 scenarios for Hive in 2023. It might be worth revisiting them.
This is the updated chart for Hive. We can see that we have entered the 3rd weekly red candle. We are also still quite above the falling wedge that kept price from breaking out.
The question is whether we are now in one of the green phases or if it's just another bear market rally with a lower low. We still do not have a definitive answer since we can see that in former green phases/rallies there were some bigger corrections along the way. Believe it or not, but in both green phases highlighted here Hive had corrections of over 56%! Currently we are "only" at about 40%.
But if we only take the weekly candles and not the wicks the biggest correction was 23%; and currently we are at 19%. So this is much closer.
The other red line is the supporting trend line on the daily chart. Previously, a bigger rally never broke down under it.
However, today we have broken under it and it seems unlikely that price will close above it.
But if you look closely it is not that black and white. In the previous rallies, especially the one in 2021 it took a while for this trend to get established. Nevertheless, the slope of the current trend line is much flatter than in the previous rallies.
It could also very well be that this is just another bear market rally and that price could go to near to 25 cents again. If it does there are at least two very good supports: the trend line form the falling wedge as well as the trend line from the channel.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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