DHF Drama And Why You Are Wrong

in #hive-1679226 days ago

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ChatGPT still sucks with faces and words

Clickbait Title - please let me explain

You probably heard about @blocktrades voting for the return proposal and the drama involved. So here is my take.

For many years now I have heard about an argument against the DHF that while having perhaps some merit in the few instances when Hive's volume was low it should be dismissed based on the following fact. But first the argument:

  • The DHF is putting constant sell pressure on Hive (my bag is not pumping, please stop!)

While of course true, this argument is meaningless when we don't look at the ratio of that sell pressure against market activity. In other words, what is the precentage of DHF's sell pressure against Hive's volume?

First, the DHF. Currently there are only 17 active proposals (which all have been defunded except for @ecency) with @blocktrades' support of the return proposal.

So how much daily selling pressure are we talking about?

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$14,596!

Granted, the majority is from @valueplan and I see no justification of it being worth a $10k daily pay. So if we remove that proposal it wouldn't even be $5,000!

THIS IS NOTHING (or is it?)

(The other argument to look at, of course, is of the relevance and impact of these proposals which I do not want to get into here - I simply want to show the ridiculousness of the argument that this number is at all relevant).

Now, what again is Hive's daily volume?

Today we have seen a more active market than usually, but it's still a far cry from the volume we spikes we are now occasionally getting from the mega pumps which are at almost 1 Billion $!

Coingecko states that Hive'v volume today is around $30M. But this is actually quite wrong.

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It excludes the majority of volume due to a missing trust score! At the bottom of the list we see that - oh yeah, we have the biggest exchange: Upbit with a staggering $52M and Bithumb with $5M.

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So we have to add another $57M to the $30M.

Today's daily volume is $87M (and we still have half of the day)

Let's put it all together:

  • Selling pressure from the DHF: $15k (hell I even rounded up)
  • Trading volume $87M (not even counting internal volume)

====> 15 000 / 87 000 000 = 0.0001724... <====

... 0.0172%

Ouch that must hurt!

Everybody, stop the DHF, it is destroying Hive's price (not!)

Please do not use this argument again (unless this percentage goes above 1% which would mean a daily spending of DHF of almost $1M (lol) or a significant drop of volume...)

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Did not know about this drama, I still don't understand how or why DHF puts sell pressure on Hive ?

well simply due to the recipients selling their HBD for Hive and then Hive on the markets

Great post! Thanks for info :)

This is the first time I heard of DHF, thanks for the info

$15,000 / day is peanuts. I think I’m trading over $100,000 a day now. On 2 exchanges. You can earn a lot with Arbitage in large trades

lol are you serious?

Comparing just a single day DHF payment vs the traded volume is a MEANINGLESS metric.

What is important is to look at the total paid out in a month/year ACTUALS vs the market cap equity held by HP holders. In 2024 there was over $6MILLION paid out via the DHF which is higher than the rewards earned by HP holders.

I didn't check the 2025 total payout yet, but if the trend of 2024 continues, say 15k per DAY = $450k per MONTH = $5.4M per YEAR continues, it will be equally as high.

This is a MASSIVE dilution of HP holders equity. Why would anyone buy Hive with this tokenomic game being played?

thanks for pointing this out; I was well aware of this limitation, but since I am quite familiar of Hive's chart on a daily basis I was quite confident that it wouldn't be much of a difference on a yearly basis.

Let's do the math (I looked at the charts for Binance and Upbit and calculated the $ average by multiplying volume * Hive volume and added additional volume from the other exchanges as a fraction of what they have of Binance's volume so I wouldn't have to do it for every exchange - it is a rough estimation, but definitely usable).

What I came up with was around $11.7B in trading volume for March 2024 - February 2025 (there is obviously a large spike for the last few months, but we are in a bull year after all).

$5M of inflation / $11.7B volume per year

= 0.0004272 or 0.042%

So around 2-3 times more than what I calculated for daily which is...

NOTHING :)

I stand by my argument: DHF sell pressure is ~0

And keep in mind that this is with 10k from valueplan (which probably won't get funding anymore)

The only mistake you're making here is rounding down the value of the things the DHF pays for to zero.
It's like when people say Bitcoin "wastes energy".
Well, how much does it waste?
And then they reference a hash calculation that implies that 100% of the usage is wasteful.

Another thing you are missing here is the market cap multiplier.
When a dollar of Hive is sold the market cap can decline $10-$100 easily.
Vice versa for when Hive is bought: x10-x100 is normal ratio for even Bitcoin during rallies.
Hive could even be x1000 under paper-thin liquidity conditions.

You do make a good point here though
What is the inflation spread again?

65% reward pool...
10% witnesses
10% DHF
15% HP interest

So with the ninjamine in play you're claiming that the 10% we are supposed to be allocating was actually higher than the 65% we printed last year... Pretty jarring numbers if true.

The DHF is basically extra HIVE inflation. Possibly some HIVE whales got tired of the dilution of their HIVE holdings. That's my theory, I could be totally wrong. Maybe things will get back to the way they were in a few days with the return proposal at a lower level.

yes, but if it is spent well, it might just be worth it

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HIVE trading volume is a meaningless metric for measuring selling pressure. I could start with 1M HIVE and buy and sell it 100 times in a day, create millions of dollars in trade volume and end the day with 1M HIVE.

The DHF paid out over $6M last year and the HIVE marketcap was under $100M for most of 2024. This is way too much. The put that into perspective, the ETH Foundation which is a little like our DHF sold a total of 4,466 ETH for $12.61M at an average price of $2,823 in 2024 but ETH has a marketcap of over $320B.

When people sell HIVE in large amounts, the price drops no matter the trading volume.

I get your basic argument, but the fact that it is so minuscule mitigates that point. Have a look at the order books of Binance and especially Upbit on a day like today (when it's not even that hot); you can easily sell 100k of Hive without impacting price by a whole lot.

Also as for the yearly argument, see my reply to mypathtofire. While $6M/$100M is a lot it has been bear years which will not hold true for bull years - also, we would have to actually know how much of the $6M contributed to Hive's value. I would definitely argue that funding projects is very beneficial to the ecosystem, but I agree that it's hard to know the impact they have and that for bear years this figure might be a bit too high.

I think you may have forgotten that the total market cap of Hive is $150M.

You need to come up with an estimate for how much you think can be extracted.

For example I could make an argument that only like 10% of the market cap can actually be extracted into USD because our orderbooks operate on razor thin liquidity. Of course it's not that simple as the diehards scramble to acquire cheap Hive in the 5-10 cent rock bottom region, but we aren't even close to that so 10% capture ratio is reasonable right now. The opposite is also true: put $1M into Hive and the market cap will go up $10M-$100M, guaranteed.

While the DHF might look like small potatoes the actual multiplier can be anywhere from x10-x100 suppression rate. Meaning $3M spent in the DHF in a year could have potentially pumped Hive price x2 under favorable conditions.

The volume is just market making bots buying and selling to each other. When actual buyers come in and take a market-making bot's Hive away it will automatically scramble to get it back and push up the price. These' bots operate under the assumption that if they sell their tokens at X price they'll be able to get them back easily from another bot. When liquidity disappears they notice quite fast.

Good point, although we also don't know how much value these proposals are actually bringing back to Hive (I am assuming/hoping they are a net positive). Maybe we can add to the proposals that the payouts have to be sold into the mega pumps 😁

The DHF drama ended already as the Return Proposal is actually lower than before all the drama at only around 34M. LEO's proposal is currently getting funded.

Lol interesting

Thank you. It was worth all the drama to get an understanding!