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Credit Suisse has designed a guide proposing three possible scenarios in which international stock exchanges and markets will react to the conflict. Cryptocurrency markets and other investments have plummeted, the marked volatility of currencies, doubt and uncertainty at the level of relations in terms of politics maintain a constant stress on projects and investors that has been reflected in the recent ruptures of European markets and that are projected in a global chaos. Within the three possible scenarios for action are:
1.- Invasion and open conflict:
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In the event of a warlike conflict and a frontal attack, the markets could face strong volatility, variable income would be the most affected with up to a 10% sharp drop with lower yields. In this scenario there is a possible massive sell-off of Russian assets with a further increase in oil and gas sales rates in this case while inflation increases flattening yield curves which is reflected as a real decrease in yield.
Persistent provocations:
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These are the long-term threats with which the conflict and tension are maintained. This brings about volatility in asset prices as long as the state of tension between the two countries in conflict is prolonged, in this case the decrease in rents and interests would be progressive until generating a state of negative growth in Europe and a continued increase in gas and oil that affects harshly all international markets.
Negotiated resolution:
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This is the most viable alternative if it is about balance at the economic level and stability of the markets, here volatility would experience a rapid decrease as well as the disappearance of pronounced risk in investments and projects. This would give way to a potential recovery in the middle of the year.
As can be seen, there are three scenarios where risk and volatility are maintained in this sense, all of us who in one way or another closely follow the news of cryptocurrencies and are financially related to projects that depend on the stability of the markets at the international level must know these aspects of international geopolitics that strongly affect all investments. It is not only about the development of investment projects or being in search of the best options in the case of blockchain, it is about learning and going deeper into those factors whose effects are reflected in the different markets and stock exchanges.