Context
Before you dive into this or skim through and click off, I should state that yes, this is absolutely an unwanted and unasked for opinion/long rant, and that I am merely a college student, who aside from lucking (I dont know man, I'm honestly just lucky/filled with too much hope in my opinion) my way into making money options trading and hodling/trading crypto has no degree in finance and has no direct relative experience in the field, so yeah take this with a grain of salt.
Reason for post/rant
After reading @cryptoandcoffee post Hitting Rock Bottom (which is definitely more in-depth and detailed than this post so maybe check it out) I felt like making a quick comment about my opinion but soon realized my "quick comment" was more of a long post/rant.
My Main Point
I truly believe we are in a small pullback that might lead to a longterm recession, and the June 7th - 21st downtrend of S&P and DOW was just a taste of whats to come
My Main Argument
Ever since I found out about crypto (2015ish) and wanted to learn about the stock market I've noticed a pattern (or maybe I'm just delusional). It seemed all the new videos, news articles and interviews seemed to be dominated around this big crash and/or recession incoming(spreading that FUD and panic as usual). Expect for right before a crash would actually happen.
When did this type of situation happen before?
From around April to September of 2017 when bitcoin was rallying and finally topped that $5,000 mark, everything that was mainstream that I read or watched was spreading crash like talk such as "bitcoin to $1 incoming", "bitcoin the newest scam?", "bitcoin will be banned" type of nonsense and my friends (who never even heard of bitcoin) on Facebook would share said articles.
However, these same people, news companies etc, around Holiday season 2017 had changed their tone and were singing praises of crypto and articles like "Bitcoin could be worth $1m", "US government backing bitcoin" etc, started popping up and these same friends on my Facebook who never heard of bitcoin started sharing posts and memes about bitcoin to the moon. And guess what, while "the mainstream" (for a lack of better terms) are talking about bitcoin and I'm too sucked into the hype to see it, the largest crypto crash (at the time) that happens a month later was starting to show signs.
Now what does that have to do with June's two week downtrend?
Well as mentioned, the mainstream always seems to push this recession incoming narrative and be wrong (except the march 2020 covid crash I guess).
But during the two week downtrend I noticed that talks of a recession from the mainstream were silent. In fact on Monday June 13th, and while I was watching Market Watch and listened as individuals like Jim Cramer came on and said things like "There's no reason or belief on wall street that this is a sign of anything other than a minor sell off that won't last past end of day", which, wasn't accurate.
Lastly, how does this relate to right now?
Well to make a long story short, mainstream is not pushing the recession talk right now, and in fact just last week on Mad Money , Cramer brushed off the recession talk yet again.
TL;DR
Mainstream is always wrong and late to the party. Mainstream isn't pushing a pullback/recession talk right now therefore recession incoming,
