Lessons from Whales: Insights, Aspirations, and the Path to Orca Status on Hive

in #hive-1735754 days ago

I am done with my subjective exploration of whales' accounts. Though the data is the same and accessible to all Hivians, the interpretation would vary, for the data have their historical contexts that are not easy to decipher.

I am writing this post not because I am anti-whale. Despite the hostility of many against big stakes, whales are necessary for the growth of a blockchain network like Hive. Besides, one way or another, many Hivians dream to become whales someday.

Personal Journey on Hive

However, our situations are not the same. Despite the claim of those who say that nothing is impossible for those who want to achieve their dreams, we still cannot change the fact that there are people who are limited in terms of their age and resources.

With limited resources and time, the best thing a man turning 60 two years from now can do in terms of his goal is to achieve at least an Orca status 5 to 8 years from now. I gained dolphin status on 21 April 2024, three days before my 57th birthday. It took me two years and eight months to achieve this. God willing, five to eight years more, the new goal is to become an orca.

Whales.png

Source: OpenAI. (2025). ChatGPT [Large language model]. https://chatgpt.com

Observations from Whale Accounts

To achieve the above goal, I need to learn from whales and orcas on Hive. Since there are too many orcas—270 the last time I checked—exploring the accounts of 40 whales is easier.

After studying the whales' accounts, I came up with tentative conclusions. Out of 40, I found 8 worthy to follow and 4 to avoid. We should be careful not to call attention to the second group, lest we suffer the consequences of their hostility. On the other hand, the example of the first group of whales provides the backbone for what is Hive now. I don't think Hive will reach the current status it now has without their hard work, stakes, and commitment.

Another observation is that more than half of the whales are not into content creation. One account is just delegating HIVE. The majority seemed to stop because of what happened in the past. Nevertheless, the good thing is that despite the negativity of a few, they are still holding huge HP, and that is good.

My third observation is that 8 accounts were created with special purposes in mind. One is for crypto exchange. The second one is the Hive account of Hive Engine. I started to appreciate this account, for I see Hive Engine as very useful, especially for second-layer tokens. Still, another is related to HBD stabilizers and DHF. Moreover, three accounts are connected to Splinterlands. This tells me that the rise of Splinterlands to prominence on Hive is not accidental. It is intentional and supported by huge stakes.

My final observation is related to HBD savings. Out of 40 whales, these are the top 10 HBD savers:

  • lazy-panda - 2M
  • sps.dao - 143,254
  • mika - 96,368
  • blocktrades - 52,685
  • steemmonsters - 12,648
  • smooth - 10,371
  • somecallmejake - 4,663
  • roadscape - 2,672

Reference

Out of the above 10 accounts, I find two very impressive. somecallmejake joined Hive in November 2023 and has 593k HP. I don't know how long it took for him to achieve whale status or if he just purchased that huge quantity of HIVE on the market on day one.

When it comes to earning interest from HBD savings, lazy-panda is the best example. Imagine earning 30,000 HBD per month. That's impressive! In Philippine pesos, 2M HBD is worth 100M PHP plus, and 30,000 HBD is approximately equivalent to 1.5M PHP. That is huge money!

In the Philippine Stock Exchange, a publicly listed company with a 100 million to 1 billion market capitalization is considered a micro-cap. Of course, the market cap is different from savings. I just compare HBD savings to market cap for us to see how big Hive is. Many Hivians are now familiar with the idea of Hive as a business. If we follow this line of reasoning, we could say that in the crypto world, Hive is no small business given the fact that only one account can make a 100 million PHP savings.

My key takeaway here is to set my own HBD goal. The ideal number for me is 40,000 HBD, and that will give you an interest rate of 30,000 PHP every month. In a Philippine setting, with that amount, you are good for retirement. That's far better than the amount you will receive from the Social Security System (SSS). The challenge is, how can you come up with 40,000 HBD savings in 5 to 8 years?

Grace and peace!

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I came to your same conclusions, the best thing is to reach a certain level of HBD that allows you to sustain better for retirement. Of coure every nation has it's own, like at yours 30,000 PHP are good, here it would be half of a barely decent retirement wage, so i would need 80k HBD. With lazy-panda interest you can buy a good house every year, imagine what you can do.... I don't know the magic to get there, i guess something like wait a big hive pump and swap hive for hbd

I guess, just like me, many Hivians exchanged their HBD for HIVE when the latter dropped near 0.20. Another guess, perhaps just like me again, is that they will start to pick up HBD when HIVE reaches 1 USD and above.

!PIZZA

I see it hard to get to 1$, already a lot of people started power down when it got to 0,6$ to sell 🤔

That's normal for many are taking advantage of short-term profits. I don't know the volume in other crypto exchanges. However, as I observe on MEXC, the volume is smaller during pullback and gets bigger when a run occurs. This to me points to a bullish direction. Besides, if the analysis that after the 2029 block reward will be tough, many will start accumulating HBD. We still have more or less 5 years to enjoy this window of opportunity.

!PIZZA

What will happen in 2029? Forgive me, I'm quite ignorant on this

I am basing my interpretation on this article. I hope she got it right.

Here's the relevant statement from the article I shared:

After 2029 it is going to be very difficult as the Block reward will reduce substantially as evident from the graph.

Makes sense, reward pool will be very tiny by then

And then by 2037, the inflation rate will be constant. If still alive, I will be 70 by that time.

PIZZA!

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That's an entirely achievable goal I think it took me around 4 years, something like that anyway!

I forgot the month last year that I was holding more or less 1,000 HBD, and then I decided to swap them to reach the Dolphin status. I am curious how much HBD you earn monthly from 6,000 HBD savings.

!PIZZA

I'm not sure off the top of my head, it'll be 6000 *15/100 /12 I guess!

Thanks!

75 HBD per month is quite decent for me.

My question is if HIVE will survive as long as BTC journey or someday we all will wake up with a rug pull...

Your worry reminds me of crimsonclad's post on Reddit. I forgot the exact word she used, but I think the idea is that Hive is rug pull proof because there is no entity that will pull the rug.

Mmm I hope so, but we are under the decisions of 20 witnesses and some few whales...

The whales on Hive are 40, and as far as I know, none of them own even just 5% of the total HIVE supply. As for witnesses, I thought it was the community that put them there. The important thing is the plurality. That provides check and balance. That is far healthier than a token controlled by a single individual, a company, or a core team.

By the way, this is the statement I was referring to coming from crimsonclad about rug pull:

There is no one to pull the rug on you, as our code base is completely and totally open source, is actively developed and maintained by about 90 different people working inside the ecosystem, and there is no treasury or secret stash of allocated coins that anyone can run off with. Source

Sounds good, thanks for quit my fears!

!INDEED
!PIZZA

My pleasure!

!PIZZA