Recently I have been reading inspirational and educational material from several sources at the same time. Yesterday I was reading some things about chess, "The Game of Kings". Basically, what you could learn from chess was applicable to life - or what you should learn in life was applicable to chess. Such as:
What is my current position? And that of my opponent?
What assets can I bring to bear on this situation?
What are the current and future threats that this position faces?
Where is the opponent vulnerable? How many moves ahead must I see to be ahead of what my opponent sees?
Chess is an interesting game, I haven't played much in the past years, except for a pick up game here and there. I have had some victories and losses, I honestly haven't taken it too seriously since I was a kid. My Dad taught me how to play, and it wasn't long before I could compete with him. I did some chess activities in a local chess club, but eventually I got interested in other things - sports, homework, money.
And that's where I want to take this post, I want to talk about money and markets - but let's use chess as our anchor when we remember - its all a game, and there are winners and losers.
Being in the unfettered (digital) markets is a multi-player game
Now in a competitive game, most people do not publish their strategies in real-time - but I have tried to show you all how it is that I am operating in the markets. I am not sure who is listening, who is learning, but I am writing, and often get paid pretty well for doing it. This, I suppose, is the beauty of HIVE.
Let's take a look at some things I have posted in the past:
Single-sided Stable Arb
Double-sided Stable Arb
How markets work (Hive-Engine)
Portfolio Management in Uncertain Times
How HBD EV actually works
Buy Low - Sell High - Why doesn't everyone do it?
I should make a collection of these things! I am not charging for this advice, so don't call me a financial professional. When you move your money, you take your risks, no matter who you listen to. But I have done quite well, even though not every trade is successful, and so I have tried to share the tools and strategies with you all - maybe someone is listening.
But what do I see? In the 'bear market' people just give up. At least that is what happened last time.
Last time, the Crypto Winter lasted almost 3 years. Almost everyone quit. Only the crazies were still talking about crypto. The market just quietly ground everyone into dust (at a profit) and left them on the side of the road to go back to playing soccer, or the piano. How many of you are back again, hoping this time it will be different?
Let me tell you that the market is the same competitive game board, the real question is - Have you changed? Have you come to the game with better strategies, more discipline, deeper perspicacity? Or are you prepared to let this game grind you to dust once again?
The lessons of life can be applied to markets - or maybe its the lessons of markets should be applied to your life. Have you programmed your daily routine?, Have you determined your vision with actively-phrased goals and imagination?, Have you understood that the world is made of change and adaption to it?, Have you accepted that suffering leads to super powers?.
Sure you can read and upvote my posts - but are you applying these lessons to your life - to your trading?
Can you even explain your trading strategy Bro?
After years at this, I have come to the conclusion that most people do not trade with a strategy. They just do what feels natural - and that often means buying tokens that are going up in price and selling tokens that are going down in price. This might be right, sometimes, but often is a money losing strategy. The market (game) is happily taking your money while you operate without a strategy and lose. This can lead to burn out - and giving up. It can also lead to learning.
Only you can decide which reaction to take. Its hard to be a contrarian, its easy to give up. But its hard on you to lose money, its much easier emotionally to be successful. Being a loser might seem easy, but it comes with its heavy costs in all areas of your life.
How long will this 'Crypto Winter' last?
While I am not yet convinced this is a winter, for ease of use we can use the concept, and I don't think it is over yet. I cannot see the future, three years is a long time but it could happen again, especially if we see a global recession. Ironically I think global conflict could also be bullish for Bitcoin, but probably bad for liquidity markets - time will tell how all of this will play out. But crypto as a technology stack - that's not going anywhere.
Builders keep building, and new opportunities keep arising. Its way easier to get good value at a reasonable price while blood is on the streets. Will you hang around enough to learn?
Or are you just going to give up?
