I have been getting election betting advertisements whenever I get online now. The latest was, bet $100 on Trump, Get $175 if he wins. I have seen statistics that say more than $100 million has been legally wagered on the presidential race on the Kalshi alone as we are days out from Election Day. This explosion in legal betting comes after a federal appeals court earlier this month allowed KalshiEX, an online-betting company, to open an election prediction market.
I have see two side to this tale one saying that this is a mechanism for truth and could help regular people hedge against unpredictable political risk. The other side is saying this is huge mistake that harms American democracy. I fall somewhere in the middle and can't really even comprehended how American politics has degraded.
I was also interested to see Robinhood also started offering bets on election contracts this week. Everyone always jokes it's a casino app now it kind of is...That leaves Americans free to make tens of millions of legal election bets, with little known about how they will impact one of the closest and most contentious presidential elections in decades.
I will admit, wagering on the U.S. presidential election is nothing new. Bets on presidential candidates were common during the turn of the 20th century. Not only did bets occur, the markets were fairly accurate during a time before scientific political polls. I even remember last year betting on the election through Hive Engine, but that scale is so tiny in comparison to what we are seeing today.
This issue I have is when you are talking about money at these scales there is an inherent risk people will try to rig markets or sway events for the sake of monetoary gain vs. what's good for the country. I'm sure the news about all this betting and the craziness brought on by Trump and MAGA just has me feeling very anxious about this election. If you have read my work I'm not a Trump fan I think he has done so much damage to politics and has made it ok for the worst people to open be themselves. I never thought I would have to be worried about a racist and hateful president in my time, but here we are...
Please go out and vote and if you are a republican please stop spreading so much misinformation and planting the seed for undermining our democratic processes.
