Hello!
Plan B is one of my favorite Bitcoin OGs. He is the creator of the stock to flow model, one of the best models to value the Bitcoin price in my opinion. You can find his work here: https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25
It's worth the read, you will not look Bitcoin the same way after reading this article. One of my "aha moments" was after reading his work.
Well, Plan B thesis is that all the Bitcoin price appreciation happens around the halvings, thus it has been predictable and it "maybe" would be predictable in the future.
All the price appreciation happens between 6 months before the halving, until 18 months after the halving.
It's illustrated in the chart below with the red color:
In the blue periods that are between halvings the price fluctuates, it's usually when bear markets occur and there are bear and consolidation periods. At least it has been like this in the past.
Will this trend continue? I really think so. It makes total sense that the scarcity manifested in the less production and sell pressure will lead to higher prices. With constant demand it makes a lot of sense, and imagine what could happen with increasing demand. Things can go nuts!
Let's see what happens in the next months. We have until October to see if this model is right.
On this image (also from plan B) we have a simplest chart. With only the Bitcoin price, colored with the months until next halving and the grey line with the Stock to Flow levels. It's really beautiful!
I love this chart!
Do you like it?
Let me know if you think that the price of Bitcoin will continue to be as predictable as usual. Do you think that we will see prices around the $500,000 mark this bull run as the stock to flow model suggests? I will be very happy if we are able to touch more than $200,000. I'm very excited for this next 6 months!
I hope you have a great weekend.
Stay safe out there!
Posted Using INLEO
