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Part 10/10:

In light of these realities, hope for recovery remains low, leaving many to ponder what the future holds for this once-thriving nation. The collaboration with international partners, reforms in policy, and significant investment in energy solutions will be essential if Cuba is ever to reignite its economic engines and improve the living conditions for its citizens.

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The Economic Crisis in Cuba: An Ongoing Struggle

Cuba is currently facing a severe economic crisis, a situation that has worsened over recent years. The island nation is grappling with power shortages, lack of resources, and an overall inability to sustain its economy. As businesses struggle to operate in an environment devoid of stable electricity, the ongoing financial turmoil appears to be a vicious cycle, primarily driven by historical, political, and socio-economic factors.

Historical Context and Current Energy Crisis

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Historically, Cuba relied heavily on Soviet support in the 1960s, receiving oil without cost in exchange for various goods and services. This support allowed the Cuban government to build numerous oil-fired power stations, which are now a liability given the soaring costs of oil in today’s market. Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in the early '90s, Cuba faced economic turmoil but found temporary relief through partnerships with Venezuela, which similarly provided oil in exchange for Cuban professionals, particularly in the medical field.

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Unfortunately, Venezuela's own economic crisis has significantly reduced the flow of oil to Cuba, exacerbating the existing energy crisis in the country. Without adequate oil supplies, businesses cannot operate effectively, leading to diminished sales and revenue—a pattern that perpetuates Cuba's ongoing economic collapse.

U.S.-Cuba Relations: A Major Barrier

The relationship between the U.S. and Cuba has dramatically changed over the decades, particularly following Fidel Castro's rise to power. The U.S. established a trade embargo in the 1960s, turning Cuba from its largest trading partner into a pariah. Despite a brief thaw in relations during the Obama administration, recent developments have dashed hopes for any improvements.

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In 2025, Joe Biden took steps to improve U.S.-Cuba relations, including removing Cuba from the list of state sponsors of terrorism—a designation that has serious implications for international trading. However, just days later, under Trump’s influence, Cuba was reinstated on that list, effectively halting any momentum for easing sanctions or restoring trade relations. This political rollercoaster continues to loom large over Cuba's economy, solidifying their status as an isolated nation with limited diplomatic pathways available.

Dollarization and Economic Inequality

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The current economic landscape in Cuba is also marked by substantial dollarization. Cubans increasingly favor the U.S. dollar over the Cuban peso, reflecting distrust in their national currency amidst a controlled exchange rate that grossly misrepresents the market reality. The average exchange rate has become starkly different on the black market compared to the official rate, leading many to seek ways to conduct their transactions in dollars.

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The shifting financial dynamics have resulted in remittances from Cubans living abroad becoming a crucial lifeline for the economy. Official figures suggest that remittances from the U.S. have surged from just under half a billion in 2000 to approximately $2.5 billion in 2023. However, this might only scratch the surface, with actual estimates possibly nearing $5 billion when accounting for various channels.

As the Cuban government has partially embraced dollarization, certain businesses and tourist-related establishments have begun accepting payments in dollars legally—a shift from prior restrictive policies. Initially confined to tourist services, this trend is progressively establishing a formality within the economy as stores and supermarkets also start accepting U.S. dollars.

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Challenges Ahead

Despite the attempts at partial dollarization and the acceptance of hard currency, inequality continues to deepen. Access to foreign currency dictates who can access goods and services, contributing to social stratification. Those limited to using pesos find themselves at a disadvantage, leading to growing discontent among the populace.

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Cuba’s government has recognized the necessity of addressing these economic challenges but faces significant hurdles. Infrastructure improvements lag behind the ever-increasing needs of its citizens. Power blackouts remain prevalent, causing businesses to rely on generators—an inadequate solution when fuel supplies are low. Although discussions about solar energy are in progress, the scope of implementation is limited, restricting progress towards a sustainable energy solution.

Conclusion: A Bleak Future?

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In summary, Cuba remains in a precarious economic situation, where its past and present intersect to create a complex web of challenges. The energy crisis poses immediate risks to the operational capacity of businesses, exacerbated by the unfavorable relationship with the U.S. that hinders any hope for significant economic assistance.

While attempts at partial dollarization offer some respite, the overarching economic picture is grim, characterized by deepening inequalities and a critical need for external support. As Cuba navigates these choppy waters, the need for political negotiation and external cooperation could not be clearer—though the path forward appears fraught with challenges.