candy49 in #politics • 25 days agoHow did Kamala Harris secure support so fast?Ever since the disastrous debate at the end of June, President Biden was coming under huge pressure to drop out of November's presidential election. But the stubborn old man was…candy49 in #uk • last monthA connundrum from the General ElectionPart of the reason Labour won 411 seats in the general election despite getting only 33.7% of the vote, is that the right-wing vote was split, with many 2019 Tory voters…candy49 in #france • last monthWhat do the French elections mean?One of the most puzzling elections in the Western world are the elections for the National Assembly in France. They were called three years before they needed to be held and have…candy49 in #uk • 2 months agoDo people remember the Council Elections on 2nd May?When the results came in, Professor Rawlings caused huge controversy with his projected national vote : Labour 35% Tories 26% LibDems 16% Others (Independents, Greens, Reformcandy49 in #uk • 2 months agoHere is how voters have reacted to the debates and manifestosWe've now had the manifestos of all the parties standing in the election. We've also had one head-to-head debate between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer on ITV, an interview session…candy49 in #uk • 3 months agoYouGov's MRP poll for Birmingham looks wrongMRP stands for Multilevel Regression and Post-Stratification. What they do is first do a standard poll with a large sample - at least 10,000 people rather than 2,000. They ask…candy49 in #uk • 3 months agoSo the General Election campaigns have started...Rishi Sunak's surprise decision to call a general election campaign - and it really took everyone by surprise - was overshadowed by his announcement of it in the pouring rain…candy49 in #uk • 3 months agoWill Natalie Elphicke's defection to Labour hurt the Labour party?Some described Natalie Elphicke's defection to Labour as the equivalent of a Corbynista like Zarah Sultana joining the Tories. In many ways it's worse. Whatever people think of…candy49 in #uk • 4 months agoOnly Savanta got the opinion polling for last Thursday's elections rightThe other pollsters missed quite badly. For example, here are the final opinion polls for the London Mayor elections, compared to the actual result: [source](candy49 in #uk • 4 months agoNicola Sturgeon's husband Peter Murrell is charged with embezzlementHe's been charged with embezzling SNP funds, while he was party leader. It's not yet clear how much Nicola Sturgeon knew and whether she'll be charged too. The big question is…candy49 in #uk • 4 months agoWhat do local council by-elections tell us about the upcoming general election?Unlike opinion polls, council by-elections show us what people who actually show up to vote are thinking. There have been 168 council by-elections since the Local Elections in…candy49 in #uk • 5 months agoReform surges to 15% in Yougov pollYouGov has been persistently showing low scores for Tories and high scores for Reform. This might be to do with sampling issues - instead of a random sample of people, they polll…candy49 in #uk • 5 months agoWhat really caused the Tory drubbing in 1997?There's been a lot of re-writing of history about the 1997 general election, mainly by people who were small children at the time, or who were born afterwards. They look at the…candy49 in #uk • 5 months agoWill there be an election in May?Rishi Sunak's Conservative Party has been working really hard to move the opinion polling dial. Since November 2023, National Insurance has been cut by 4% (at a total cost of…candy49 in #ireland • 5 months agoAre opinion polls reliable?The Republic of Ireland has just had a referendum to amend their constitution. There were two amendments proposed. One was to change references to "marriage" and replace it with…candy49 in #uk • 6 months agoThe surprising results of the Rochdale by-electionI don't mean the winner George Galloway, I mean the man who came second, independent candidate Dave Tully. Tully owns a car repair business in Rochdale, and only decided to…candy49 in #uk • 6 months agoWill the Speaker survive?So - we had shenanigans in Parliament last Wednesday. The SNP had an "Opposition Day". What does that mean? Well, the elected government controls the parliamentary schedule…candy49 in #uk • 6 months agoThe Rochdale by-election is hotting upRochdale's Member of Parliament, the Labour MP Sir Tony Lloyd recently passed away and a by-election to replace him will be held on 29th Feb. The whole thing has turned into a…candy49 in #uk • 7 months agoWill Sunak's breakthrough on Northern Ireland change his political fortunes?Rishi Sunak has made the EU climb down further; they've agreed that Northern Ireland can freely participate in all trade deals the UK does with the rest of the world. I suspect…candy49 in #uk • 7 months agoConservative fortunes have been declining since mid 2021Here is the polling graph: source Obviously there are ups and downs due to events - you can clearly see the dips due to partygate and Truss in the graph.
