My father's crypto holdings have surged by 300% since he entered the market. His initial foray into owning crypto (with me acting as the custodial service every time 😄) began in 2021... I essentially "assisted him" in buying near the peak. Back then, I didn't prompt him to venture into crypto; rather, he came up with the idea, and I merely assisted him with the technical aspects.
He initially purchased LTC for $225 each and held onto it throughout the bear market of 2022. However, by the end of 2023, he sought to further invest and sought my assistance once again. This time, he nearly bought the bottom with his investment, and he's currently up by 300%. In a recent phone conversation, he mentioned that he'd be more than willing to cash out once his investment surpasses 30X.
I reckon that's a reasonable goal, especially with the altcoin season seemingly just around the corner. Nonetheless, we must exercise extreme caution over the coming months to a year. It appears that we're entering a market phase known as the winner's curse, and those who fail to maintain a level head during this period may end up surrendering everything back to the market, much like my dad did in 2022.
2024 is poised to be a remarkable year for the stock market, cryptocurrencies, and possibly even real estate, as many individuals will divert their funds from crypto and stocks once they reach "irrelevant levels," reallocating them into real estate. Some argue that real estate is also experiencing a bubble, with its own 18.6-year cycle set to conclude sometime in 2025-2026.
In the meantime, though, let's savor the ride. It's going to be one hell of a journey. Every novice investor will feel invincible, with Bitcoin reigning supreme. Media outlets will inundate the masses with positive news, fostering mass euphoria that will culminate in the peak of the uptrend—a surge that will astonish many but also catch some off guard.
We're already witnessing signs of euphoria in the media, largely spurred by the emergence of ETFs. Recent news reveals that Thailand’s Securities and Exchange Commission has greenlit firms to launch funds for investing in U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, and The London Stock Exchange is now accepting Bitcoin ETN submissions, offering investors a new avenue for Bitcoin investment backed by physical assets and secure cold storage.
That's encouraging, and do you know what else I find intriguing? It's something I predicted a couple of years ago—presidential candidates leveraging Bitcoin's popularity to sway voters, much like Trump is doing now by tentatively stating that he "enjoys dabbling in Bitcoin" and that Bitcoin serves as an additional currency.
While he remains steadfast in his belief in a robust dollar, he acknowledges Bitcoin as a supplementary currency alongside the dollar. Whether intentional or not, something has recently caught my attention...
Recall that a few months ago, Binance faced intense scrutiny in the US, being slapped with a $4 billion fine for alleged non-compliance, with its CEO CZ facing potential jail time. All of this unfolded just before the approval of spot ETFs. Coinbase (an American crypto exchange) serves as custodian for presumably all spot ETFs, and what's the current scenario?
Binance is experiencing staggering outflows due to its tarnished reputation, while ETFs are steadily accumulating Bitcoin at a rate of around 4,000 BTC per day, storing them on Coinbase.
Essentially, what we're witnessing is America accumulating substantial amounts of Bitcoin, thus Trump's positive stance on Bitcoin now makes a lot of sense. As he mentioned, the dollar is indeed not as robust as it once was, particularly with BRICS nations distancing themselves from it. Yet, at least the US will possess "an additional strong currency alongside the dollar—Bitcoin."
If spot ETFs maintain their current pace of acquiring 4,000 BTC daily, most of that coming from entities(plebs) owning less than 1 BTC, they'll amass over 1.5 million coins by the end of 2024. This leads me to believe that by the year's end, America might hold roughly 10% of Bitcoin's total supply.
How did you manage that, America?
Meanwhile, China has nearly choked off Bitcoin within its borders, flooding the EV market with cheap cars, resulting in overproduction and mounting tariffs imposed by the EU and US. Yet somehow, the US continues to reign supreme. Kudos on that one! Smart move...
However, I still anticipate the bubble to deflate, and while BTC may soar to $300,000 or beyond this cycle, a correction of at least 70% should be expected from whichever level BTC peaks at.
Thanks for your attention,
Adrian