2020 was a highly contentious year. On one hand, we witnessed the true face of government systems worldwide, while on the other, markets experienced the real impact of "frustrated retail." What do I mean by that?
Well, 2020 was the last year I worked as a boat trip client hustler and believe me that year was a blast. Due to travel restrictions prohibiting people from leaving their countries and spending their vacations elsewhere, we got to see an immense amount of people spending their vacation inside the borders.
My shity little home town being categorized as a touristic place welcomed a shit load of tourists over the span of a few summer months. Everybody got hyped about it and the next year business owners started injecting even more capital in their businesses and all of that was decided based on the earnings 2020 brought them.
They propped up the price of accommodation and all sorts of other services they were offering in the area just to see that with every year the amount of tourists getting in town was becoming weaker and weaker.
Now despite the price cuts we see in the tourism industry the situation is not getting better and frustration arises. The yearly business reality got depegged from the 2020 numbers and expectations that this business year gave birth to. History often rhimes but it does not repeat itself.
When it comes to crypto I see quite a few analysts trying to always find repeating patterns for their analysis and this way helping in creating false expectations for their followers. 2024 is unlike any other year in crypto. This is one thing I am 100% sure about.
Everything else is subpositions... And quite often suppositions fail to match reality. Hence I am very focused on sentiment rather than being glued to repeating patterns. I believe that as an investor you always have to leave room for the element of surprise and not rely entirely on the concept of history repeating itself.
When it comes to tourism there will never be a similar year to the year 2020 in my part of the world and extrapolating this concept to crypto I can say that the current bull market is not similar to any of the previous ones. Even break of the past ATH prior to halving says a lot about that.
It does not mean that it is guaranteed we will top out way sooner than we usually do according to the four years cycles that have played out phenomenally until now, but neither do we have any guarantees that the top will be one and half years after halving.
I guess the truth is in the middle and that's why I am mostly focused on sentiment rather than blindly trying to search for repeating patterns. Peak euphoria marks the top of any market and that's what I am waiting for.
When everyone becomes interested in crypto and no one believes a bear market will ever come because of the narrative that technology is going to drive us into a never-ending era of abundance to me that is a sign of exiting my positions. Until then I am bullish no matter what crypto gurus are saying...
JUst my two cents.
Thanks for your attention,
Adrian
